Guys who will have CAREER years and guys who will have BREAKOUT years

Hey guys thanks for stopping back.
First of all I would like to address the only question of the week that came from www.fantasybaseballexpress.com forums.
Canexicans asked if it was better to use 1 or 2 catchers for your fantasy league. My reasoning is that since catcher is already an unproductive position you do not want to have a second one who weighs down your cumulative stats like batting average. However having two makes it more competitive because you need to research more players. I cannot really tell you how to run your league, I would prefer 1 C but the leagues I play in have 2 and it doesen't really bother me.

Alright on to the Juicy Stuff

Guys who will have CAREER YEARS this year....

1. Rafael Furcal
He is at the peak age of 29. His bb% and ops% have really been growing since '02. Hes always been a pretty good source of sb and a decent power source. Looking at his stats last year he had 4 Hr in the 1st half but 11 in the 2nd half. The only thing that this can point to is that he will have his best power season yet. A guy who consistantly makes contact with 40Sb potential who should approach 20 Hr this year count me in. His 2nd half Ba last year was a fluke but nonetheless Furcal should hit around 300 this year.
Expect 18 Hr,.300, 120 runs,35 sb, 70 rbi

2. Juan Pierre
Regardless if he hits hr he ALWAYS hits the ball. Its plain and simple if you constistantly hit the ball and you have blinding speed you will be a valuable fantasy option. Juan Pierre is just that. He had a slow start last year (.252ba) but rebounded in the 2nd half .326. Hes at the peak age of 29 also, he should get more sb opurtubites this year.
Expect 300,65 sb, 90 R, 40 rbi,

BREAKOUT YEARS...........

1. Ben sheets
You cant really say this would be his breakout year, but he will be a cy young canidate if he can just stay healthy. He started out throwing rediculous last year w/ a 12.5 k/9 w/ 24ip. In addition to his strikeouts he dosent walk anyone, and had pinpoint control. However the best indicator we can probably get is his 2nd half numbers last year. His absurd 12.5 k/9 fell to 9.5 which is still rediculous, but he still kept his control. Another thing about sheets is taht he dosent give up HR. he had around a .55hr/9 last year. The brewers are also looking like a good team this year. With weeks,fielder,and hall (they still have him right_) sheets should get some run support also. Sheets is still at his pre-peak stage. You cant really project out what he is going to do becuse he is an injury risk but it was his petoral muscle and shoulder it could be worse (lower arm/elbow)Im not a doctor so i cant tell you if he will pitch a full season but keep an eye on him......see if he is fully healthy, if he is do not be afraid to draft him VERY early.
Full Year=15 wins, 1 whip, 3Era, 200K...

2. Scott Kazmir
Hes sill in a growing stage being 23. He got hurt w/ an inflamed shoulder last year, but as he came back his stats went UP. He had an 11.2k/9 in the 2nd half and his command of his pitches actually went up as well. He walked a few more guys, but his hr/9 went down to .6. Seeing that kazmir is only 23 you cant say this will be his career year seeing that he is still developing. Its kind of scary to imagine a kid this young could possibly get.................................
1.2 whip 200k sub 3 era and around 13 wins depending on how good the drays are this year

Okay so keep the Q's coming at the fbexpress message boards, or email me them at ajopiela@yahoo.com

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAMN!!! Adam, you took my guy in Kazmir! So I will choose another. I think Kaz will be great this year. But here are my 2 picks for Career year and my two for Break out year.

BREAK OUT YEAR
1. Prince Fielder - Has a sweet swing that screams success. With a full year in the league we should see a spike in just about everything. 35+ homers is possible but 30+ will be just as nice. Not to mention, he'll throw in a few stolen base just for kicks. Although he can be quite streaky as we saw last season, he's the real deal. This being his second full season, Prince Fielder will put himself into the elite. Think Ryan Howard type success minus about 15-20 homers.

2. Alex Rios - Last season he was on the verge of a break out season but was forced on the DL due to a Staph Infection. I am looking for Rios to regain his form and strive for that potential 30/30 season everyone thinks he is capable of! 25/25 is more realistic but add in 100 runs and a .300+ average and you have yourself a lovely keeper!

CAREER YEAR
1. Rocco Baldelli - If you haven't heard me talk up Baldelli, you will in the next few weeks. Baldelli and Rios are my two favorite players this year to bust out! Baldelli's second half last year was unbelievable despite missing a year and a half due to injuries. The riskis still ther of course, but the potential is of the charts. I'm talking a possible .300+/25hr/90RBI/120 runs/25 stole bases in 650 AB's if he stays healthy all season...which he should. Also, the success of the surrounding young studs in Tampa will help his cause tremendously.

2. Grady Sizemore - What does this guy not do??? He does it all and a .300+ average/120 runs/30HR/90RBI/25SB is 2nd round material with no injury risk. His numbers project to be about the same as Baldelli but its Sizemores average and power that will see a spike into a "career year". In normal drafts, Sizmore is gone by the end of the second round and in the $30 - $40 range in normal $260 budget mixed auction leagues. Thes players who can do it all...Baldelli, Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez, Rios, Damon, Jeter, Utley, Wright, Bay...these guys can go a long way in helping you win a championship...assuming you have more than one!

Thats it! You'll here plenty more about these guys in the very near future!
Please return to www.fantasybaseballexpress.com for more fantasy baseball info, tool, strategies, and the Fantasy Man Show. Also, please sign up for the Fantasy Man League!

FM
Fantasy Baseball Express
www.fantasybaseballexpress.com
Member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association

Who Are The Top 4 Picks of 2007?

If your lucky enough to get a top 4 pick in your fantasy baseball draft, you will want to make sure you get the right player! Seeing as he is the player you are trying to build your team around, you will also have a low 2nd round pick depending on the amount of teams in the league. It can be absolutely devastating if your top guy is a bust. Not taking anything away from Mark Teixiera and Arod, who are perennial top 4 guys, but whom last year were no where near as valuable a top 4 pick as they should have been, although they produced productive seasons. I am not guaranteeing that my top 4 here will definitely be the 4 most productive players in terms of fantasy this year, but these are absolutely "can't miss" fantasy players that you should not pass up if you have a high pick. (These Rankings are based on 5x5 mixed leagues.)

1. Albert Pujols
There really cannot be any argument here. Pujols is entering the prime of his career and he hit 49 HR, knocked in 137, and hit .331 last year while spending two weeks on the disabled list. My only complaint here is that Pujols simply is not the SB threat that people think he is. He had 7 last year granted he was injured, but have you seen the guy in person? He's a monster! Not saying he's not a world class conditioned athlete, but you would think that he wouldn't be a threat to swipe a bag. Plus, as he gets older, I am sure he will run less, and you would think that the Cardinals would want to protect him as much as possible. My bottom line here is that some people feel like Pujols is superior to guys like Howard b/c he can run. However, I say that he cannot run and Howard could possibly hit more HR and RBI..... so think twice I guess. Other than that because of his track record and the fact that he is pretty much slump proof makes him a lock atop the 2007 draft class.

2. Johan Santana
I am sure Mikey will disagree with me here but I have Santana VERY close behind Pujols here. The fact of the matter is just that this guy is so dominant its ridiculous. He had 19 wins last year (led the league), 1.00 whip (led the league), 2.77era (led the league), 245K (led the league) as well as a 9.44 k/9 second only to Jake Peavy. What hitter is there that is the best in 4-5 categories? Johan Santana is just so much more productive than any other pitcher when he is on the mound in terms of allowing runs and runners to reach base. Santana is just amazing and has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down. I am targeting him in my leagues this year because he fits absolutely perfect into my draft strategy which I will discuss later.

3. Ryan Howard
Will probably hit the most home runs this year, therefore putting him very high in runs and RBI as well. He is hitting for tremendous power as well as putting up an average of .313 which is usually the Achilles Heel of your stereotypical power hitting First Basemen. He is no threat to run, but really neither is Pujols. I guarantee that Pujols will have no more than 10 more SB's than Howard this year. So your sacrificing a little speed, but I think that Howard could potentially hit 10 more HR than Pujols. Howard is also in his prime years of production, playing in the whiffle ball park of Philly, he should just about equal Pujols' net production.

4. Jose Reyes
He is a 5-tool threat. He hit 19 HR, .300, 122 runs, 81 RBI and 64 SB's last season. Reyes is extra valuable because he iss at a position (SS) that looks very shallow this year. His power has been evolving for the last few years, and I have to say there is no way I could have thought he could hit 19 HR last year. However, the fact that he has been steadily improving suggests that this might be his best power year yet. Personally, I doubt he will ever hit more than 25 HR, but that's amazing when it goes along with 64 stolen bases. He walked a lot more last year resulting in more stolen bases so his eye should continue to evolve. Reyes is also entering the prime years of his career so if he beefs up a little I guess it is possible that he can hit 30 and steal 70. He's a small guy so you would have to wonder if there is any injury risk. His team should be as good as last year so he should get about the same RBI and runs

-Adam
you can email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com if you want, I will answer any questions that you might have.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Fantasy Man's Top 4 of 2007
Every Week, Adam I will give Adam a question to ponder, he will answer, and I will throw in my two cents. This we call...... THE FBE RUMBLE PIT! Game On!

1. Albert Pujols - Let's just call Sir Albert "the obvious". The day someone decides not to draft Pujols first, is the day your going to get hurt.....just ask all the people who drafted Alex Rodriguez first last season! He's a "sure-fire" .330+ hitter, 100 runs, 40+ HR, 120+ RBI's and even a couple of stolen bases. The best part is, by the time your pick comes back at 24 & 25 in a normal 12 team draft, there are still plenty of studs to draft to compliment the best player in Fantasy Baseball. Don't let only a few stolen bases get in your way because in the end, do we really draft Pujols first because of his speed? I don't think so! It is true that Ryan Howard may hit a few extra homeruns, however Pujols' average, those few extra stolen bases, and those extra runs are far more superior. Plus, I fear that Howard could get the "Bonds Treatment" this season.

2. Alfonso Soriano - The only knock on Soriano is his sub .280 average last season but not bad considering he was not supposed to be any good last season according to some experts. His feat of going 40/40 put Soriano into the elite and his potential to do it again, in Wrigley, makes Soriano a number 2 pick and arguably a #1 pick. Think about this.... If you pick Soriano at #1, you are getting a top power hitter AND a top Stolen base guy all in one shot!!! That is huge!!!!! Besides his big contract pressures and that not-so-attractive average, Soriano is the one player who can realistically give you the stats of two players for the price of one, as I described above. I have Soriano at #2 here because I do not want to get hurt by Pujols. I also do not want to get burned by the pressure Soriano may endure with the signing of such a large contract. Besides, I am biased to players with the higher average but I love Soriano over Howard for the reasons I described above.

3. Ryan Howard - Just as obvious as Pujols, this guy is an absolute beast! Howard has a bit more power, home runs galore, and a .300 average to go along with that. There is no reason he will stop now especially at age 27! Howard is the real deal so I do not feel that he will pull a Mark Teixiera this season. He hits in a sweet lineup and a small ballpark, what's not to like? However, I do see Howard getting some type of "Bonds" treatment a bit this season. Expect .300/45/135/100. Howard ranks over Ortiz because he actually plays first base.

4. Jose Reyes - As long as his legs hold up, he will be even better than he was last season and I'm expecting .290 - .300, 20HR / 85RBI / 120Runs/ 70 SB which possibly is within reach. Keep in mind though, that these are top 3 or 4 projections. If he gets his 600+ ab's and stays healthy, Reyes will have a monster year and 20+ HR's will be icing on the cake!

You can see The Fantasy Man's Top 25 draft picks of 2007 at http://www.fantasybaseballexpress.com/

FM
Fantasy Baseball Express
Home of The Fantasy Man Show Baseball Podcast


MikeyThe Fantasy ManFantasy Baseball Expresshttp://www.fantasybaseballexpress.com/Home of "The Fantasy Man Show" Podcast