You have been invited to join the first ever FBE Writer's League. Email me, and i will give you the league info..
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Sunday, February 18, 2007
Friday, February 16, 2007
Carlos Lee Dosent Excite You?
No this is not a homosexual reference towards Carlos Lee. However i will admit i LOVE Carlos Lee this year. I was looking through Mikey's top 25 today and when i saw Lee at #24, i decided that i have to enlighten you with my own thoughts.
First of all he is a 5 tool player to begin with. Last year with two teams he hit 37 HR with 102 runs 116 rbi a 300 average and 19 sb. If that is not 5 tool, i dont know what is. The obvious prediction this year, is that he will improve playing in Houston (Which i totally agree with). What you dont realize by just watching ESPN is that Lee's Power/Potential BA/Contact%/Batting Eye/ and speed have been increasing for some time now. He is also 30 this year, his "peak" should be justified by his rising skills. I think you can expect 40HR/100R/110RBI/300avg/15 steals this year. While is skills may warrent a first round pick, you can just as easily grab him in the 2nd. I passed over him in the 2nd for Holliday in the FM league draft. Im starting to question that........ Lee is a great second round pick, and i would almost feel more SAFE taking Carlos Lee over guys like Vlad/Hanley/Bay/Sizemore/Jeter.....All of which Mikey has above Lee on his list.
Im just giving you a different opinion!
I know i keep promising it, but Podcast#1 will be UNLEASHED very soon.
ajopiela@yahoo.com
First of all he is a 5 tool player to begin with. Last year with two teams he hit 37 HR with 102 runs 116 rbi a 300 average and 19 sb. If that is not 5 tool, i dont know what is. The obvious prediction this year, is that he will improve playing in Houston (Which i totally agree with). What you dont realize by just watching ESPN is that Lee's Power/Potential BA/Contact%/Batting Eye/ and speed have been increasing for some time now. He is also 30 this year, his "peak" should be justified by his rising skills. I think you can expect 40HR/100R/110RBI/300avg/15 steals this year. While is skills may warrent a first round pick, you can just as easily grab him in the 2nd. I passed over him in the 2nd for Holliday in the FM league draft. Im starting to question that........ Lee is a great second round pick, and i would almost feel more SAFE taking Carlos Lee over guys like Vlad/Hanley/Bay/Sizemore/Jeter.....All of which Mikey has above Lee on his list.
Im just giving you a different opinion!
I know i keep promising it, but Podcast#1 will be UNLEASHED very soon.
ajopiela@yahoo.com
Thursday, February 15, 2007
How did The Fantasy Man do???
I have already talked about my Fantasy Man league team. I have told you what i really think of my picks, i was honest, i did not cover anything up, (Though i think my team was pretty damn good!) Now it is time to do the same for The Fantasy Man. Mikey called out my Round 20 Manuel Corpas pick. I can see Corapas taking over as the Colorado closer very soon, so i think it is a good pick. Mikey refered to that pick as "stupid" So here it comes Mikey,.... GAME ON!!!!!!!
Round 1 Pick Alfonso Soriano
I am glad you did not take Reyes! Though Soriano is capable of repeating last years stats, i just dont see it. His average should fall, due to the fact that the park is smaller, and therefore some of the balls that dropped in for hits at Wrigley may not at RFK, and fielders should have an easier time playing the balls. If he bats leadoff, his RBI's will obviously fall. His HR and SB should be pretty much the same, though his runs should definetly increase. But what happens now that he has signed the big contract? Repeat of Beltran?
Round 2 Pick Mark Texiera
I am with you on this one. He hit 27 doubles in the first half, which explains why his homerun totals were so low+ plus his second half gain of Fly ball%. He finished last year on a tear, so he still has it. You could very well be getting the Texiera this year that you paid for last year.
Round 3 Pick Miguel Tejada
I dont see where you were going with this one. He wasnt even the best shortstop available (i like Furcal more). There is also a thing called a CI, which would have given you a lethal power force if you slotted morneau here. I also like My Andruw Jones pick over Tejada here. I will give you the .320 and 25+HR, but this just was not the right pick in my book.
Round 4 Pick Robinson Cano
Well i wanted to take him, so great pick lol...... He will give you around a 330 average with around 20 hr at a really scare position. He will also score a lot of runs w/ the NYY. Great pick. I almost like him more than Tejada.
Round 5 Pick Scott Kazmir
Its too bad you missed out on getting a solid vetran anchor to your staff. However, i think that this is an excellent pick if Kazmir does what he should. He was better last year after his injury, you really should be looking at 15 wins, 3 era, 1.2 whip, and 190 K's. Great keeper option also.
Round 6 Pick Trevor Hoffman
Good Control and Command of his pitches is what is making up for his deteriorating K/9 ratio. For the moment he is good for another 35+ saves. Watch out for injuries though..... He is a solid pick here, but i have no idea why you wouldnt take Putz though.
Round 7 Pick Jered Weaver
150+ inning spike last year, makes him a good canidate for burnout. His Era is heading up to around 3.8. He is not a 2.4 pitcher. He has elite skills, but they went down in the second half. SOPHMORE SLUMP!
Round 8 Pick Cole Hamels
Maybe the best SP out there in terms of imediat impact and upside at this point. I like him a lot more than Weaver, you are lucky he wasnt gobbled up at this point. K Machine with good ratios/skills. He will be closer to J. Santana than Weaver this year.
Round 9 Pick Dan Uggla
I wont blame you on taking Uggla here, MDC screwed me over a few times also. However, this is a terrible pick. Too many of his balls fell in for hits that should not have, and his ground ball% took a huge leap in the second half. He dosent have speed, so you could be looking at a 265 average along with pretty medicore stats the rest of the way. This is a sophmore slump he will not get out of, last year was a fluke.
Round 10 Pick Francisco Cordero
Great Pick. He is better than Hoffman. He should save 40 games this year and have pretty good supporting stats. Turnbow is still out there though.
Round 11 Pick Justin Verlander
Late season fatige=not good. He is not the player we saw in the first half. But he certainly is not the second hald either. He is a risk. Your pitching staff is riding on Verlander and Weaver evading the sophmore slump and burnout. I wouldnt put too much faith into these guys.
Round 12 Pick Chris Duffy
You neeed steals, so good pick. He wont come out and steal 50+ though. I think you can expect 30. I like him on that up and coming pirates team also.
Round 13 Pick Jeff Franceor
He is unpredictable. He could give you a .290 avg w/ 30+ hr or he could give you about 20 hr with a .265 average. I try to stay away from guys like this. I kind of like Garciapara or Ibanez here. They should give you around the same average, but they are safer and have a higher average.
Round 14 Pick Edwin Encarnocion
He's still growing. He wont hurt you. He should hit around 20 hr and .300
Round 15 Pick Carlos Quentin
The power is on the way, dont worry! It might get there before the .BA though. I actually like him more than the other Of options you had.
Round 16 Pick Chin-Ming Wang
Adds some stability to your risky staff. He will get wins ERA Whip, but not a lot of K's. Though i agree with you in drafting Weaver/Verlander before Wang, i think Wang could have a better season.
Round 17 Pick Hank Blaylock
Though he is young, his power skills have been deteriorating for a while. His gb% has been going up= not a good combination. He should rebound a little from last year, but he is not the player he was in 03/04.
Round 18 Pick Chuck James
My personal opinion is that he is not the prospect people say he is.
Round 19 pick Anibal Sanchez
Apparently hurt himself playing in a S.A. league. He really does not have the K/9 rate (5.8) or the control to be sucessful. The No-hitter made him look good. You are going to be dissapointed with both him and James thsi year.
Round 20 Pick Melvin Mora
Expect what you got last year.
Round 21 Pick Ryan Shealy
Has a Bad eye, and strikes out a lot. But the power is here. HE should hit around 25 while batting 270. In terms of draft position Shealy is kind of like the Chris Shelton/Conor Jackson of this years draft.
Round 22 Pick Johnny Gomes
Was hurt which explains his lackluster stats. However his flyball% rose which indicates more power is coming back. His aveagre is going to stay bad though. Good upside pick here.
Round 23 Pick Moisies Alou
He still has the power and .300 average, will he be on the field though?
Round 24 Pick Ronnie Paulino
Solid C option here i guess.
Round 25 Pick Felix Pie
I wont talk crap about players i dont know about............
Round 26 Pick Carl Pavano
Was impoving before 2005 injury. The fact that he was injured is why you got him here. You may have cought lighting in a bottle here.......
Round 27 Pick Glen Perkins
solid prospect, thats it for now. G&S?
Round 28 Pick Nelson Cruz
Will start as a platoon player. Intriguing Power and speed....... The average is not good though.
Round 29 Pick Gil Meche
I would have taken him if i knew he was here. Lenny Melnick said it all. Carpenter? Probably not....But i applaud Mikey for taking the risk.
Round 30 Pick Clay Hennsley
Value Lies w. Ground Balls. Bad Control. Upside? Round 30....Dosent matter....
Round 1 Pick Alfonso Soriano
I am glad you did not take Reyes! Though Soriano is capable of repeating last years stats, i just dont see it. His average should fall, due to the fact that the park is smaller, and therefore some of the balls that dropped in for hits at Wrigley may not at RFK, and fielders should have an easier time playing the balls. If he bats leadoff, his RBI's will obviously fall. His HR and SB should be pretty much the same, though his runs should definetly increase. But what happens now that he has signed the big contract? Repeat of Beltran?
Round 2 Pick Mark Texiera
I am with you on this one. He hit 27 doubles in the first half, which explains why his homerun totals were so low+ plus his second half gain of Fly ball%. He finished last year on a tear, so he still has it. You could very well be getting the Texiera this year that you paid for last year.
Round 3 Pick Miguel Tejada
I dont see where you were going with this one. He wasnt even the best shortstop available (i like Furcal more). There is also a thing called a CI, which would have given you a lethal power force if you slotted morneau here. I also like My Andruw Jones pick over Tejada here. I will give you the .320 and 25+HR, but this just was not the right pick in my book.
Round 4 Pick Robinson Cano
Well i wanted to take him, so great pick lol...... He will give you around a 330 average with around 20 hr at a really scare position. He will also score a lot of runs w/ the NYY. Great pick. I almost like him more than Tejada.
Round 5 Pick Scott Kazmir
Its too bad you missed out on getting a solid vetran anchor to your staff. However, i think that this is an excellent pick if Kazmir does what he should. He was better last year after his injury, you really should be looking at 15 wins, 3 era, 1.2 whip, and 190 K's. Great keeper option also.
Round 6 Pick Trevor Hoffman
Good Control and Command of his pitches is what is making up for his deteriorating K/9 ratio. For the moment he is good for another 35+ saves. Watch out for injuries though..... He is a solid pick here, but i have no idea why you wouldnt take Putz though.
Round 7 Pick Jered Weaver
150+ inning spike last year, makes him a good canidate for burnout. His Era is heading up to around 3.8. He is not a 2.4 pitcher. He has elite skills, but they went down in the second half. SOPHMORE SLUMP!
Round 8 Pick Cole Hamels
Maybe the best SP out there in terms of imediat impact and upside at this point. I like him a lot more than Weaver, you are lucky he wasnt gobbled up at this point. K Machine with good ratios/skills. He will be closer to J. Santana than Weaver this year.
Round 9 Pick Dan Uggla
I wont blame you on taking Uggla here, MDC screwed me over a few times also. However, this is a terrible pick. Too many of his balls fell in for hits that should not have, and his ground ball% took a huge leap in the second half. He dosent have speed, so you could be looking at a 265 average along with pretty medicore stats the rest of the way. This is a sophmore slump he will not get out of, last year was a fluke.
Round 10 Pick Francisco Cordero
Great Pick. He is better than Hoffman. He should save 40 games this year and have pretty good supporting stats. Turnbow is still out there though.
Round 11 Pick Justin Verlander
Late season fatige=not good. He is not the player we saw in the first half. But he certainly is not the second hald either. He is a risk. Your pitching staff is riding on Verlander and Weaver evading the sophmore slump and burnout. I wouldnt put too much faith into these guys.
Round 12 Pick Chris Duffy
You neeed steals, so good pick. He wont come out and steal 50+ though. I think you can expect 30. I like him on that up and coming pirates team also.
Round 13 Pick Jeff Franceor
He is unpredictable. He could give you a .290 avg w/ 30+ hr or he could give you about 20 hr with a .265 average. I try to stay away from guys like this. I kind of like Garciapara or Ibanez here. They should give you around the same average, but they are safer and have a higher average.
Round 14 Pick Edwin Encarnocion
He's still growing. He wont hurt you. He should hit around 20 hr and .300
Round 15 Pick Carlos Quentin
The power is on the way, dont worry! It might get there before the .BA though. I actually like him more than the other Of options you had.
Round 16 Pick Chin-Ming Wang
Adds some stability to your risky staff. He will get wins ERA Whip, but not a lot of K's. Though i agree with you in drafting Weaver/Verlander before Wang, i think Wang could have a better season.
Round 17 Pick Hank Blaylock
Though he is young, his power skills have been deteriorating for a while. His gb% has been going up= not a good combination. He should rebound a little from last year, but he is not the player he was in 03/04.
Round 18 Pick Chuck James
My personal opinion is that he is not the prospect people say he is.
Round 19 pick Anibal Sanchez
Apparently hurt himself playing in a S.A. league. He really does not have the K/9 rate (5.8) or the control to be sucessful. The No-hitter made him look good. You are going to be dissapointed with both him and James thsi year.
Round 20 Pick Melvin Mora
Expect what you got last year.
Round 21 Pick Ryan Shealy
Has a Bad eye, and strikes out a lot. But the power is here. HE should hit around 25 while batting 270. In terms of draft position Shealy is kind of like the Chris Shelton/Conor Jackson of this years draft.
Round 22 Pick Johnny Gomes
Was hurt which explains his lackluster stats. However his flyball% rose which indicates more power is coming back. His aveagre is going to stay bad though. Good upside pick here.
Round 23 Pick Moisies Alou
He still has the power and .300 average, will he be on the field though?
Round 24 Pick Ronnie Paulino
Solid C option here i guess.
Round 25 Pick Felix Pie
I wont talk crap about players i dont know about............
Round 26 Pick Carl Pavano
Was impoving before 2005 injury. The fact that he was injured is why you got him here. You may have cought lighting in a bottle here.......
Round 27 Pick Glen Perkins
solid prospect, thats it for now. G&S?
Round 28 Pick Nelson Cruz
Will start as a platoon player. Intriguing Power and speed....... The average is not good though.
Round 29 Pick Gil Meche
I would have taken him if i knew he was here. Lenny Melnick said it all. Carpenter? Probably not....But i applaud Mikey for taking the risk.
Round 30 Pick Clay Hennsley
Value Lies w. Ground Balls. Bad Control. Upside? Round 30....Dosent matter....
Sunday, February 11, 2007
The Superior Mendoza Swingers
Last night I was proud to take part in the draft for the first ever Fantasy Man money league. I drew the 4th pick. Just a note before i go into it.... I was planning on podcasting this analysis but i just found out that my microphone does not work. I will buy a new one, so you can probably expect to see this broadcasted via blogmatrix later this week. It should be easier to follow, but this post should be pretty imformative, and it will provide a nice outline for me when i do my first ever podcast!
Round 1 Pick Jose Reyes
The Draft started out just as i expected it to, Pujols went #1. Then something happened that i was not ready for, RangerLexi took Santana at #2. I am not saying this is a bad pick, but i fully expected either Reyes, Soraino, and Howard to be picked here. I then knew that because Mikey loves Soriano so much, that i was going to have to choose between Reyes and Howard at #4. Elite Power or Elite Speed? I ended up penciling Reyes in at my SS. Was it the right move? I think so.... I think that though they are both young Reyes has FAR more potential than Howard. The difference is that i can see Reyes possibly stealing 80 bases this year, i simply cannot see Howard hitting 60 Hr. Another deciding factor in my decison was Howards absurdly low contact %. It was 69% when he swung. He has had this stat his whole career and has still managed to hit around 300, but this percentage is only 3 points higher than the man himself, Adam Dunn.
Hopefully Reyes legs hold up, since he tries to steal about 45% of the time he gets on base.
Round 2 Pick Matt Holiday
Coming back around i knew i wanted to get a good power guy who has upside and a decent average. Matt Holiday totally fit the criteria. At the very least he should improve on last year's #s. In my mind he is of 1st round value, i could not believe i got him towards the end of the 2nd round!
Round 3 Pick Andruw Jones
Though i am putting 35+ Hr in the bank from Holliday i wanted additional power here. Andruw Jones is at the prime of his career and is an absolute lock for 40+ HR this year. I wont sit here and ramble off stats (Though i may on the podcast) but Jones has constantly been an underacheiver in the BA department. He owns the skills and stats to hit 290, but he has been a chronic 265 hitter. This is the year that he puts everything together. And hey, if it isnt Holliday makes up for his low average and i have 40 more HR at the least.
Round 4 Pick Chone Figgins
The Botched Pick!!!!!!!!!!!!! I was going to take Cano, but i go down to look at my book for what seems like 10 seconds, i look back up and i have Chone Figgins at my 3b slot. I lost around 40 pts of average here as well as some power, but on the bright side i gained about 40 sb. So with Reyes and Figgins i should be a force to be reckoned with in the SB department, but honsestly this is not what i was planning at all. You need to be able to recoever from a mistake like this though, i feel i did and had a sucessful rest of the draft. Lol Mikey you lucky S.O.B. i wanted Cano!!!
Round 5 Pick Jim Thome
Coming back around i knew i absolutley had to get power because i ended up taking Figgins. Though it was not my intention i had more projected SB than HR at this point in the draft. So i sort of panicked and took Thome. He is old, he isnt sexy, but he is still ticking and should get me 40 HR and hit about 285.
Round 6 Pick Adam Laroche
Ok, so this was kind of the turn around pick of my draft in my mind. I did not realize that Thome did not qualify at 1b (Not that i wouldnt have taken him anyway) but now it was the 6th round and i did not have a 1b. So im looking down the list and i see Adam Laroche, YES! Here is a guy in an ideal situation. He is around the peak of his career, hitting in a Lhers ballpark on an up and coming pirates team. Mikey will disagree with me here... He thinks Laroche was a reach in the 6th round. Well Mikey i will make a bet with you that Laroche will have better numbers then Tex at the end of the year. What do you say to that? Huhhhh? Im expecting a 290 avg and 35-40 Hr with about 100 rbi/runs.
Round 7 Pick Delmon Young
I think he can be 20/20 this year! Maybe more.... His value definetly goes up seeing this is a keeper league, but i didnt pick him for the future, i picked him for NOW. I have to admit i kind of wanted Baldelli or Rios here though........
Round 8 Pick Tori Hunter
Batting average should hurt me a little bit... Im thinking 275 with optimism, but hey he could totally bust out. He should hit around 25 Hr and steal around 20 bases also. I cant argue getting a potential 30/20 guy in the 8th round. Hey, if he gets his average up, and exceeds expectations a little bit, and continues to play CF the way he does, we could very well be looking at the 2007 Al MVP.
Round 9 Pick Edgar Rentaria
I was trying to make up some BA at my MI spot here.... I like his consistancy though... He will help my avg by batting around 290, and will get 10 hr/15 sb at the absolute least.
Round 10 Pick Jeff Kent
Wow! Is Jeff Kent really my 2b? Exactly why i wanted Cano... Hes 39, absolutley no value in a keeper league. He hurt his wrist/oblique which is cause for concern, but he hit 315 in the second half. I kind of like the LAD this year. My modest projection is 295 15 HR +80/80 r/rbi... Thats not so bad after all, that actually helps my average.
Round 11 Pick Javier Vazquez
My 1st Pitcher. If you couldnt tell by now im a LIMA drafter. This is going to sound stupid as hell, but if i draft a SP i want to think that he may contend for the Cy Yound. I think Vazquez can do just that. His ERA was unlucky last year, but he had a 1.3 whip w/ good K totals. If he gets lucky he is capable of posting a 3.00 era w/ 18 wins, a 1.2 whip and 200 K's. This totally justifies my point of waiting on pitching because i could potentially get a top 5 picter in the 11th round.
Round 12 Pick Jose Valverde
Probably a little early for him but most of the closer were gone so i wanted to make sure that i got at least one. He had control problems in the first half of last year, which cost him his job, but he regained his skills in the second half. He is a good K pitcher who should have a low era whip, + he has really no job competition heading into this year. The Dback should be in a lot of close games so he should get some save opps
Round 13 pick AJ Burnett
Will he ever stay healthy? I dont know! He showed flashes of brialliance last year though. At age 30 its now or never. Im banking that he stays healthy, and therefore predict he can be the Jay ace that they paid for, posting 15 wins w/ a 3.5 ERA a 1.2 WHip and 200 K's
Round 14 Pick Johnathan Broxton
My heart stopped when Stu A.K.A Can o Corn took Joel Zumaya. I remembered talking to Mikey before the draft, he knows my strategy. He was telling me that he was going to tell the league to pick my MR guys. Though i love Zumaya i love Broxton more. I held my breath that he was going to reach me. In 87 In last year he had a 2.27 ERa and a 1.18 whip w/ 113 K's. WOW, if his even pitches a few more innings he should approach SP amount of K's. However the bigger picture is that he could be the closer. Saito is 37. Broxton in my mind is just 1 or 2 Saito blown saves away from stepping into the job. If he does he will be by far the most valuable picther in my book. I know round 14 was a reach, but I HAD TO HAVE HIM.
Round 15 Pick Scott Shields
Pretty much the premier Middle Relief guy out there. Is skills are more than closer worthy. Im happy to have his low ERA/WHIP, but what if he goes to a team that needs a closer? How about the Redsox?
Round 16 Pick Kelvim Escobar
My Third and Final SP. If he is healthy i think he is capable of posting 18 win 3.2 ERA/1.2 whip and 170 K. Hes been consistant since he has been in Anaheim. Its just a matter of staying healthy...
Round 17 Pick Ivan Rodriguez
Bottom Line: I needed a Catcher. This is why i would not draft Mauer in the third round,..because i can get I-rod in the 17th. He is clearly on the decline, but he should be a 10/10 player this year, and should bat 300. Basically what you are losing between Mauer and Irod (this year) is 6-8 HR and 25 points max BA. Think about that, and then think about if its worth leaving a guy like A. Jones/Justin Morneau and their 40+ Hr on the table for position scarcity.....
Round 18 Pick Josh Willingham
I know he does not qualify at C, but he hit 27 HR last year. He should hit 30 this year, + his skills/stats grew in the 2nd half of last year. Dont worry, ill find a place to put him.....
Round 19 Pick Kenny Lofton
I honestly do not know if he will start this year. But he should be good for 20+ sb. Clearly old/deteriorating.....
Round 20 Pick Taylor Tankersly
Who else can be the Fl closer? They traded Jo Borowski, so they obviously have some faith in Tankersly... He would make a good closer becuase of his high K rate, and the fact that though he is a lefty both Rh/lhers hit equally off him. Did i just steal an elite skill closer in round 20? Maybe...
Round 21 Pick Manuel Coraps
Emerged as Co's primary set up man last year. He has great control of his pictes, and a decent K rate. He posted a 2.22 ERA and a 1.16 whip last year in 77 innings. Once again he is one of those guys that is just a few blown saves or an injury away from being an elite closer.
Round 22 Pick Mike Jacobs
I needed a CI. He will hit around 20 Hr and should have a better BA this year. One of those picks that im not thrilled about, but everyone was hyping him up last year, he should improve.
Round 23 Pick Scott Linebrik
Total LIMA pick. I dont expect him to take over the SD closer role unless Hoffman gets hurt, but hes just one of those guys that is going to give you a consistantly low ERA/WHIP, +some K's, hopefully some wins
Round 24 Pick Kiko Calero
Same deal as Linerbrik. Good ERA WHIP. Lefty specialist. Will both get you holds if your league has that.
Round 25 Pick Omar Vizquel
Should provide BA and steals, had a suprising year last year. I expect him to retire on top, not because SF does not want him because he cant play anymore. He should not fall back to much from last year.
Round 26 Pick Raphael Soriano
Great LIMA pick. Should be starter this year. Good K ratio.... I think he could contend for the closers spot also.
Round 27 Pick Dustin Pedroia
Home Town Pick! Will be the socks 2b this year. Got unlucky in his limited time in the majors last year. He had a 94% contact percentage as well as a good line drive % He IS a 300 hitter, and will be this year. He dosent have much power speed. (He could go 10/10 i guess) More than that though i like his run total potential hitting the in the socks lineup.
Round 28 pick Jeremy Accardo
Another Yound Lima pick. Again he could be the closer if Ryan gets hurt. I will take his ERA/WHIP though.
Round 29 pick Manny Delcarmen
Improved second half skills. The sox will always use their pen. A possible dark horse, seeing that pinero is the closer as of now..... + A+ lima grade in the 2007 Baseball Forecaster, lol
Round 30 pick Craig Biggio
I thought the draft was over, so i left....skills are clearly going down the shi**** but i have always admired Biggio as a person and a player. Maybe i will keep him on my bench just for that, but i dont know we will have to see what FA's are available and how the rest of my team looks when the first picth of the 2007 baseball season is thrown on April 1st!!!!!!!!!!
If you have any questions about anything email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com The podcast will get started this week i promise, iv got vacation in a week lol i cant wait!
Round 1 Pick Jose Reyes
The Draft started out just as i expected it to, Pujols went #1. Then something happened that i was not ready for, RangerLexi took Santana at #2. I am not saying this is a bad pick, but i fully expected either Reyes, Soraino, and Howard to be picked here. I then knew that because Mikey loves Soriano so much, that i was going to have to choose between Reyes and Howard at #4. Elite Power or Elite Speed? I ended up penciling Reyes in at my SS. Was it the right move? I think so.... I think that though they are both young Reyes has FAR more potential than Howard. The difference is that i can see Reyes possibly stealing 80 bases this year, i simply cannot see Howard hitting 60 Hr. Another deciding factor in my decison was Howards absurdly low contact %. It was 69% when he swung. He has had this stat his whole career and has still managed to hit around 300, but this percentage is only 3 points higher than the man himself, Adam Dunn.
Hopefully Reyes legs hold up, since he tries to steal about 45% of the time he gets on base.
Round 2 Pick Matt Holiday
Coming back around i knew i wanted to get a good power guy who has upside and a decent average. Matt Holiday totally fit the criteria. At the very least he should improve on last year's #s. In my mind he is of 1st round value, i could not believe i got him towards the end of the 2nd round!
Round 3 Pick Andruw Jones
Though i am putting 35+ Hr in the bank from Holliday i wanted additional power here. Andruw Jones is at the prime of his career and is an absolute lock for 40+ HR this year. I wont sit here and ramble off stats (Though i may on the podcast) but Jones has constantly been an underacheiver in the BA department. He owns the skills and stats to hit 290, but he has been a chronic 265 hitter. This is the year that he puts everything together. And hey, if it isnt Holliday makes up for his low average and i have 40 more HR at the least.
Round 4 Pick Chone Figgins
The Botched Pick!!!!!!!!!!!!! I was going to take Cano, but i go down to look at my book for what seems like 10 seconds, i look back up and i have Chone Figgins at my 3b slot. I lost around 40 pts of average here as well as some power, but on the bright side i gained about 40 sb. So with Reyes and Figgins i should be a force to be reckoned with in the SB department, but honsestly this is not what i was planning at all. You need to be able to recoever from a mistake like this though, i feel i did and had a sucessful rest of the draft. Lol Mikey you lucky S.O.B. i wanted Cano!!!
Round 5 Pick Jim Thome
Coming back around i knew i absolutley had to get power because i ended up taking Figgins. Though it was not my intention i had more projected SB than HR at this point in the draft. So i sort of panicked and took Thome. He is old, he isnt sexy, but he is still ticking and should get me 40 HR and hit about 285.
Round 6 Pick Adam Laroche
Ok, so this was kind of the turn around pick of my draft in my mind. I did not realize that Thome did not qualify at 1b (Not that i wouldnt have taken him anyway) but now it was the 6th round and i did not have a 1b. So im looking down the list and i see Adam Laroche, YES! Here is a guy in an ideal situation. He is around the peak of his career, hitting in a Lhers ballpark on an up and coming pirates team. Mikey will disagree with me here... He thinks Laroche was a reach in the 6th round. Well Mikey i will make a bet with you that Laroche will have better numbers then Tex at the end of the year. What do you say to that? Huhhhh? Im expecting a 290 avg and 35-40 Hr with about 100 rbi/runs.
Round 7 Pick Delmon Young
I think he can be 20/20 this year! Maybe more.... His value definetly goes up seeing this is a keeper league, but i didnt pick him for the future, i picked him for NOW. I have to admit i kind of wanted Baldelli or Rios here though........
Round 8 Pick Tori Hunter
Batting average should hurt me a little bit... Im thinking 275 with optimism, but hey he could totally bust out. He should hit around 25 Hr and steal around 20 bases also. I cant argue getting a potential 30/20 guy in the 8th round. Hey, if he gets his average up, and exceeds expectations a little bit, and continues to play CF the way he does, we could very well be looking at the 2007 Al MVP.
Round 9 Pick Edgar Rentaria
I was trying to make up some BA at my MI spot here.... I like his consistancy though... He will help my avg by batting around 290, and will get 10 hr/15 sb at the absolute least.
Round 10 Pick Jeff Kent
Wow! Is Jeff Kent really my 2b? Exactly why i wanted Cano... Hes 39, absolutley no value in a keeper league. He hurt his wrist/oblique which is cause for concern, but he hit 315 in the second half. I kind of like the LAD this year. My modest projection is 295 15 HR +80/80 r/rbi... Thats not so bad after all, that actually helps my average.
Round 11 Pick Javier Vazquez
My 1st Pitcher. If you couldnt tell by now im a LIMA drafter. This is going to sound stupid as hell, but if i draft a SP i want to think that he may contend for the Cy Yound. I think Vazquez can do just that. His ERA was unlucky last year, but he had a 1.3 whip w/ good K totals. If he gets lucky he is capable of posting a 3.00 era w/ 18 wins, a 1.2 whip and 200 K's. This totally justifies my point of waiting on pitching because i could potentially get a top 5 picter in the 11th round.
Round 12 Pick Jose Valverde
Probably a little early for him but most of the closer were gone so i wanted to make sure that i got at least one. He had control problems in the first half of last year, which cost him his job, but he regained his skills in the second half. He is a good K pitcher who should have a low era whip, + he has really no job competition heading into this year. The Dback should be in a lot of close games so he should get some save opps
Round 13 pick AJ Burnett
Will he ever stay healthy? I dont know! He showed flashes of brialliance last year though. At age 30 its now or never. Im banking that he stays healthy, and therefore predict he can be the Jay ace that they paid for, posting 15 wins w/ a 3.5 ERA a 1.2 WHip and 200 K's
Round 14 Pick Johnathan Broxton
My heart stopped when Stu A.K.A Can o Corn took Joel Zumaya. I remembered talking to Mikey before the draft, he knows my strategy. He was telling me that he was going to tell the league to pick my MR guys. Though i love Zumaya i love Broxton more. I held my breath that he was going to reach me. In 87 In last year he had a 2.27 ERa and a 1.18 whip w/ 113 K's. WOW, if his even pitches a few more innings he should approach SP amount of K's. However the bigger picture is that he could be the closer. Saito is 37. Broxton in my mind is just 1 or 2 Saito blown saves away from stepping into the job. If he does he will be by far the most valuable picther in my book. I know round 14 was a reach, but I HAD TO HAVE HIM.
Round 15 Pick Scott Shields
Pretty much the premier Middle Relief guy out there. Is skills are more than closer worthy. Im happy to have his low ERA/WHIP, but what if he goes to a team that needs a closer? How about the Redsox?
Round 16 Pick Kelvim Escobar
My Third and Final SP. If he is healthy i think he is capable of posting 18 win 3.2 ERA/1.2 whip and 170 K. Hes been consistant since he has been in Anaheim. Its just a matter of staying healthy...
Round 17 Pick Ivan Rodriguez
Bottom Line: I needed a Catcher. This is why i would not draft Mauer in the third round,..because i can get I-rod in the 17th. He is clearly on the decline, but he should be a 10/10 player this year, and should bat 300. Basically what you are losing between Mauer and Irod (this year) is 6-8 HR and 25 points max BA. Think about that, and then think about if its worth leaving a guy like A. Jones/Justin Morneau and their 40+ Hr on the table for position scarcity.....
Round 18 Pick Josh Willingham
I know he does not qualify at C, but he hit 27 HR last year. He should hit 30 this year, + his skills/stats grew in the 2nd half of last year. Dont worry, ill find a place to put him.....
Round 19 Pick Kenny Lofton
I honestly do not know if he will start this year. But he should be good for 20+ sb. Clearly old/deteriorating.....
Round 20 Pick Taylor Tankersly
Who else can be the Fl closer? They traded Jo Borowski, so they obviously have some faith in Tankersly... He would make a good closer becuase of his high K rate, and the fact that though he is a lefty both Rh/lhers hit equally off him. Did i just steal an elite skill closer in round 20? Maybe...
Round 21 Pick Manuel Coraps
Emerged as Co's primary set up man last year. He has great control of his pictes, and a decent K rate. He posted a 2.22 ERA and a 1.16 whip last year in 77 innings. Once again he is one of those guys that is just a few blown saves or an injury away from being an elite closer.
Round 22 Pick Mike Jacobs
I needed a CI. He will hit around 20 Hr and should have a better BA this year. One of those picks that im not thrilled about, but everyone was hyping him up last year, he should improve.
Round 23 Pick Scott Linebrik
Total LIMA pick. I dont expect him to take over the SD closer role unless Hoffman gets hurt, but hes just one of those guys that is going to give you a consistantly low ERA/WHIP, +some K's, hopefully some wins
Round 24 Pick Kiko Calero
Same deal as Linerbrik. Good ERA WHIP. Lefty specialist. Will both get you holds if your league has that.
Round 25 Pick Omar Vizquel
Should provide BA and steals, had a suprising year last year. I expect him to retire on top, not because SF does not want him because he cant play anymore. He should not fall back to much from last year.
Round 26 Pick Raphael Soriano
Great LIMA pick. Should be starter this year. Good K ratio.... I think he could contend for the closers spot also.
Round 27 Pick Dustin Pedroia
Home Town Pick! Will be the socks 2b this year. Got unlucky in his limited time in the majors last year. He had a 94% contact percentage as well as a good line drive % He IS a 300 hitter, and will be this year. He dosent have much power speed. (He could go 10/10 i guess) More than that though i like his run total potential hitting the in the socks lineup.
Round 28 pick Jeremy Accardo
Another Yound Lima pick. Again he could be the closer if Ryan gets hurt. I will take his ERA/WHIP though.
Round 29 pick Manny Delcarmen
Improved second half skills. The sox will always use their pen. A possible dark horse, seeing that pinero is the closer as of now..... + A+ lima grade in the 2007 Baseball Forecaster, lol
Round 30 pick Craig Biggio
I thought the draft was over, so i left....skills are clearly going down the shi**** but i have always admired Biggio as a person and a player. Maybe i will keep him on my bench just for that, but i dont know we will have to see what FA's are available and how the rest of my team looks when the first picth of the 2007 baseball season is thrown on April 1st!!!!!!!!!!
If you have any questions about anything email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com The podcast will get started this week i promise, iv got vacation in a week lol i cant wait!
Thursday, February 8, 2007
A Helpful Tip+ update on audio
I hope to have my first audio blog up this weekend (barring any unexpected technical difficulty). I should be broadcasting alongside my partenr Dan. We will be rattling of our positional rankings at a pretty quick pace. Our first podcast will probably be each of our top 25. The day after, we can run through most of the infield positions, as well as answer your questions (which you can email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com).
I feel that the easiest way to know you will be builiding a sucessful and competitive team is to project out stats, and then total those stats.
To Dominate a HITTING category you would want
Around 300 HR
Around 200 SB
around a 285 avg
The RBI and Runs are not that important because they come with power and speed, SB translates into elite runs, and HR translate into elite RBI
Sorry that was so quick brief, hopefully the podcast will make it up to you..................
Happy Drafting
I feel that the easiest way to know you will be builiding a sucessful and competitive team is to project out stats, and then total those stats.
To Dominate a HITTING category you would want
Around 300 HR
Around 200 SB
around a 285 avg
The RBI and Runs are not that important because they come with power and speed, SB translates into elite runs, and HR translate into elite RBI
Sorry that was so quick brief, hopefully the podcast will make it up to you..................
Happy Drafting
Saturday, February 3, 2007
Just a Quick update
Sorry i have been inactive for the past week or so. I have been doing my own draft prep that i cannot wait to share with you guys a little later
I just need to talk about a few changes that this blog may be going through.... I think my friend dan will replace mikey as my cowriter of this blog, he cant keep up with it and i can't blame him he has a whole website to manage.
I may also create a podcast that will be broadcasted through this blog hopefully. That could be up as early as tomorrow. I'll hopefully have a partner on that also.
I would also like to remind you to join the Fantasy man leagues. We have a $50 keeper league that needs one more manager, draft order should be up soon....How about you?......
Email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com if you have any questions
I just need to talk about a few changes that this blog may be going through.... I think my friend dan will replace mikey as my cowriter of this blog, he cant keep up with it and i can't blame him he has a whole website to manage.
I may also create a podcast that will be broadcasted through this blog hopefully. That could be up as early as tomorrow. I'll hopefully have a partner on that also.
I would also like to remind you to join the Fantasy man leagues. We have a $50 keeper league that needs one more manager, draft order should be up soon....How about you?......
Email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com if you have any questions
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