Today as i was sifting through the fantasybaseballexpress message board, i saw that "pirates" asked if a case could be made for any player other than Albert Pujols to be 2007's #1 draft pick.
If somebody put a gun to my head at this instant and asked me who i would take first overall, I would stutter out as if it were a natural reflex, "Albert Pujols." However if this same guy came back in April, when i would have had a chance to think it through i might have a different answer.
The one guy that i can see picking above Pujols is Jose Reyes. If Reyes exceeds expectations this year he could bat .330 with 110 runs, 90 rbi,25 hr, and 20-80 sb. Thats a 5 category player. The difference between him and Pujols is that Pujols will never give you Sb's, though he will probably hit 30 more HR, with 45 more RBI. I personally see speed as more valuable than power, and for that reason would consider picking Reyes above Pujols.
Mikey has admitted to considering picking Soriano 1st overall. Let me tell you why he is wrong...... I see Soriano this year as a 3 category player. He is around a 280 hitter, but playing in a smaller park i see that less of his balls will fall for hits, lowering his Ba. I could see Soriano hitting .270 this year. In addition to his BA, Soriano's RBI may go down if he does indeed bat leadoff. Thid leaves Soriano with Hr,SB, and Runs. I see Soriano scoring more runs this year in a better lineup, but i see his HR and SB slightly deteriorating now that he has finally signed the big contract. In the end you could potentially be left with; 35 HR, 35 Sb, .265-270 Avg,85 Rbi, and 100+ r. You should not pay for his 40/40 potential seeing as you can pick sleeper power/speed picks in the end of the draft. Instead pick Reyes or Pujols, and build around them.
"Pirates" also joked that Mauer could be the #1 pick, but seriously asked where i would rate him. I would rate Mauer at the Top of the Catcher position which is by far the most scarce in fantasy, and as a result would have no problem picking him in the third round of a 12 team mixed league. He is a real 320-340 hitter. He is a great contact hitter, and has a great eye. He hit 36 doubles last year, and with a rising fly ball percentage he should turn a few of those into HRs. I think you can expect 20 HR, a 330 avg 90 runs, 8 sb, and 90 rbi from Mauer this year. I have him above Mcann becuase he is a better contact/patient hitter. In addition to this Mcann's sudden power came from an elevated fly ball% and this could just as easily turn into more pop outs. Mauer just seems like a more proven/safe player to me this year. Mauer will not win any categories for you but he can help you in everything (especially average)...From a Catcher,ill take it!
That is all i have for today, i would like to remind you to keep sending me questions at ajopiela@yahoo.com or through the fbe message board, and dont forget to sign up for the Fantasy Man Leagues. As of Now im in a $50 draft scheduled for this saturday. I would love the company/competition of playing against some of the people who read my blog. Who knows maybe you know more about fantasy baseball than i do, well get in the league then, and we will find out. Thats why i am in it, is to see how my humble views measure up against guys like Mikey who are in the bussiness. By proving yourself, you gain respect, among the fantasy basbeall community, and thats how you get to be an expert by putting your name/skills out there... (Not that i know anything about that(:
Monday, January 22, 2007
Sunday, January 21, 2007
What About Pitching?
I recently recieved a post in the fantasybaseballexpress.com forums from "Pirates" who asked me when he thought it was appropriate to pick up pitching in a regular draft. "Pirates" also asks if it is easier to find pitching or hitting once the season starts.
Before I tell you my take on pitching this year, i would like to remind all you fantasy baseball addicts to sign up for the Fantasy Man Leagues on www.fantasybaseballexpress.com. They should be really fun, you will get your chance to play against mikey, as well as myself if you enter the 50 dollar league i am in lol....
I would take Johan Santana above any other player in these year's draft with the exception on Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes. I strongly feel as though he is by far the best pitcher this year. He could be the best in the league at his position in 4 of the 5 categories. There really is not much else to say, this guy is an absolute lock. Other than Santana I would not touch another pitcher until the third round. There i would target either Halladay or Carpenter. I would take Carpenter above Halladay because though they both post excellent era/whip Carpenter has a higher K ratio than Halladay, and Halladay has to face the Sox/Yanks. After that the next tier would be Zambrano/Oswalt. Oswalt should win more games and have a lower whip, but Zambrano should add some more wins this year, but he needs to lower his whip. He is also playing for a long term contract.
I would personally try to take at least one of these guys so you know you have one guy that you can absolutley rely on to give you Wins/K's while improving your ratios. After I hopefully lock up Johan Santana and my infield i will probably target a moderate risk young starting Pitcher such as Kazmir, Hammels, or even Ben Sheets. I would go after one of these guys in around the 6-7th round and would be happy to have one of them as my second starter. Before the 10th round is over i would try to pick up a good to elite closer, and possibly a eric gagne/ brad lidge who everyone is down on this year.
After I lock up 2-3 starters who will have excellent K's,Whip,Era as well as a decent closer i will turn to my late draft strategy which is very similar to Ron Shandler's L.I.M.A. plan. My goal here is to pick guys with excellent skills (Not necessarily roles) who will solidly put me in the top 1/3 of the league in Whip/Era/K's. I will put out a list of these guys later but for now im talking about guys like Scott Schields,Manny Delcarmen,Manuel Corpas, Joey Devine, and even Eric Gagne. The Difference between this and the L.I.M.A. plan is that i am willing to invest an early pick in pitching and will not hesistate to draft the studs. I will probably throw another starter in there, but definetly not a guy who will compromise my top tier era/whip. (Javier Vazquez/Brett Myers are great choices) In essence you are going to dominate in K,Era,WHIP, and saves if you play your cards right. The beauty of this approach though is that while everyone is reaching for picthing you are rounding out your offensive categories which you should be able to easily win.
I definetly think that pitching is easier to pick up once the season starts than hitting. This is because pitchers are more injury prone, and their jobs are not as secure as hitters. Think about it this way if a decent hitter goes through a huge slump, he will get moved down in the order so he can regain his confidence. However if a closer hits a slmup and blows a few saves he loses his Job. Last year we saw Otsuka/Putz/and Papelbon come out of the bullpen to be the best closers that nobody drafted. If you are totally on top of the team's bulppens and pay attention to who the future closers could be (Many are the guys i just mentioned) you really do not have to even draft closers in the actual draft, and can pick up guys from Free Agents. That said i would definetly get one guy just to be safe, and possibly another later, but do not pass up a hitter with potential to pick a run of the mill closer who will probably lose his job soon.
So that is my approach to pitching this year, i will probably expand on it in future posts.
If you have any questions please email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com. I need your participation to keep this going, this is what really makes the fantasybaseballexpress great. So jump on the forums, or send me an email...
And do not forget to register for the FANTASY MAN LEAGUES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Before I tell you my take on pitching this year, i would like to remind all you fantasy baseball addicts to sign up for the Fantasy Man Leagues on www.fantasybaseballexpress.com. They should be really fun, you will get your chance to play against mikey, as well as myself if you enter the 50 dollar league i am in lol....
I would take Johan Santana above any other player in these year's draft with the exception on Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes. I strongly feel as though he is by far the best pitcher this year. He could be the best in the league at his position in 4 of the 5 categories. There really is not much else to say, this guy is an absolute lock. Other than Santana I would not touch another pitcher until the third round. There i would target either Halladay or Carpenter. I would take Carpenter above Halladay because though they both post excellent era/whip Carpenter has a higher K ratio than Halladay, and Halladay has to face the Sox/Yanks. After that the next tier would be Zambrano/Oswalt. Oswalt should win more games and have a lower whip, but Zambrano should add some more wins this year, but he needs to lower his whip. He is also playing for a long term contract.
I would personally try to take at least one of these guys so you know you have one guy that you can absolutley rely on to give you Wins/K's while improving your ratios. After I hopefully lock up Johan Santana and my infield i will probably target a moderate risk young starting Pitcher such as Kazmir, Hammels, or even Ben Sheets. I would go after one of these guys in around the 6-7th round and would be happy to have one of them as my second starter. Before the 10th round is over i would try to pick up a good to elite closer, and possibly a eric gagne/ brad lidge who everyone is down on this year.
After I lock up 2-3 starters who will have excellent K's,Whip,Era as well as a decent closer i will turn to my late draft strategy which is very similar to Ron Shandler's L.I.M.A. plan. My goal here is to pick guys with excellent skills (Not necessarily roles) who will solidly put me in the top 1/3 of the league in Whip/Era/K's. I will put out a list of these guys later but for now im talking about guys like Scott Schields,Manny Delcarmen,Manuel Corpas, Joey Devine, and even Eric Gagne. The Difference between this and the L.I.M.A. plan is that i am willing to invest an early pick in pitching and will not hesistate to draft the studs. I will probably throw another starter in there, but definetly not a guy who will compromise my top tier era/whip. (Javier Vazquez/Brett Myers are great choices) In essence you are going to dominate in K,Era,WHIP, and saves if you play your cards right. The beauty of this approach though is that while everyone is reaching for picthing you are rounding out your offensive categories which you should be able to easily win.
I definetly think that pitching is easier to pick up once the season starts than hitting. This is because pitchers are more injury prone, and their jobs are not as secure as hitters. Think about it this way if a decent hitter goes through a huge slump, he will get moved down in the order so he can regain his confidence. However if a closer hits a slmup and blows a few saves he loses his Job. Last year we saw Otsuka/Putz/and Papelbon come out of the bullpen to be the best closers that nobody drafted. If you are totally on top of the team's bulppens and pay attention to who the future closers could be (Many are the guys i just mentioned) you really do not have to even draft closers in the actual draft, and can pick up guys from Free Agents. That said i would definetly get one guy just to be safe, and possibly another later, but do not pass up a hitter with potential to pick a run of the mill closer who will probably lose his job soon.
So that is my approach to pitching this year, i will probably expand on it in future posts.
If you have any questions please email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com. I need your participation to keep this going, this is what really makes the fantasybaseballexpress great. So jump on the forums, or send me an email...
And do not forget to register for the FANTASY MAN LEAGUES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Who to keep?
Here is a question that Mikey recieved and turned over to me to discuss in the Fantasy Baseball Express Rumble Pit.
The question asks which 5 players he should keep out of the 7 players he mentions. (Looks like a pretty good problem to have.......)
Here are the players
Utley
Wright
Jeter
Baldelli
Hamels
Jered Weaver
H. Ramirez
Chase Utley is the definition of a 5 category player. He is at the prime age of 28 and is playing for an emerging phillies team. His surface situation suggests that this could be his career year. Utley had somewhat of a flukey year last year; he solved his hitting woes vs lhers and scored a rediculous 131 runs. He went from 220 in '05 to 331 in '06 (Vs.LHers. There is no real explanation for this (Utley is a solid contacting hitter.) It is possible that his low Ba. was simply poor luck. His 131 runs can be attributed to his starteling amounts of Ab's in the second half, so expect that to come down a little bit. Im assuming becuase you are thinking of keeping Utley you do not have a better 2b option, but really there is not one anyway.
The next guy you need to keep is David Wright. Here is another 5 category player. His stats this year should actually be similar to Utley. He should have a few less runs with a lower Ba. His Fly ball percentage rose last year which could mean more power is coming. He is still only 24 so he is growing, but belive me it's coming.
Derek Jeter is worth keeping also. His .343 Batting average last year was a complete fluke, but he has consistantly been a 300+ hitter his whole career. His second half was far better than his first half last year. At the age of 32 Jeter should start to decline sometime soon, but he will definetly be worth keeping this year. If you keep Utley, Wright, and Jeter you are well on your way to a championship. You are getting Power and speed along with an absolutley elite batting average.
I would also keep Hanley Ramirez . His power spike in the second half of last year was crazy. Definetly do not count on him being a 15-20HR 80 Sb guy. He always makes contact and if you combine that with is blazing speed he should be a 300 hitter. You can't expect an improvemnet over last year but you should be happy with his 10Hr/60 Sbs.
I like Cole Hammels over Jered Weaver. Hammels Strikes more batters out, plays in the national league, and has a far better k/b ratio. Jered Weaver is an injury risk becuase of the innings he pitched last year.
I cant say that i would keep Baldeli until i see him produce over a full season. He is a small/fragile kid who is always hurt. Mikey compares him to Sizemore???? I can't say i agree with you on this one........
Hoped that helped a little bit...
The question asks which 5 players he should keep out of the 7 players he mentions. (Looks like a pretty good problem to have.......)
Here are the players
Utley
Wright
Jeter
Baldelli
Hamels
Jered Weaver
H. Ramirez
Chase Utley is the definition of a 5 category player. He is at the prime age of 28 and is playing for an emerging phillies team. His surface situation suggests that this could be his career year. Utley had somewhat of a flukey year last year; he solved his hitting woes vs lhers and scored a rediculous 131 runs. He went from 220 in '05 to 331 in '06 (Vs.LHers. There is no real explanation for this (Utley is a solid contacting hitter.) It is possible that his low Ba. was simply poor luck. His 131 runs can be attributed to his starteling amounts of Ab's in the second half, so expect that to come down a little bit. Im assuming becuase you are thinking of keeping Utley you do not have a better 2b option, but really there is not one anyway.
The next guy you need to keep is David Wright. Here is another 5 category player. His stats this year should actually be similar to Utley. He should have a few less runs with a lower Ba. His Fly ball percentage rose last year which could mean more power is coming. He is still only 24 so he is growing, but belive me it's coming.
Derek Jeter is worth keeping also. His .343 Batting average last year was a complete fluke, but he has consistantly been a 300+ hitter his whole career. His second half was far better than his first half last year. At the age of 32 Jeter should start to decline sometime soon, but he will definetly be worth keeping this year. If you keep Utley, Wright, and Jeter you are well on your way to a championship. You are getting Power and speed along with an absolutley elite batting average.
I would also keep Hanley Ramirez . His power spike in the second half of last year was crazy. Definetly do not count on him being a 15-20HR 80 Sb guy. He always makes contact and if you combine that with is blazing speed he should be a 300 hitter. You can't expect an improvemnet over last year but you should be happy with his 10Hr/60 Sbs.
I like Cole Hammels over Jered Weaver. Hammels Strikes more batters out, plays in the national league, and has a far better k/b ratio. Jered Weaver is an injury risk becuase of the innings he pitched last year.
I cant say that i would keep Baldeli until i see him produce over a full season. He is a small/fragile kid who is always hurt. Mikey compares him to Sizemore???? I can't say i agree with you on this one........
Hoped that helped a little bit...
Monday, January 8, 2007
The Big Unit Once Again?
Hey guys sorry it has been so long since my last post. But i have been busy and have had a lack of material to write about. I could put you asleep with my positional rankings, but ill save that for later. Instead i figured i would talk about something that is meaninful to a fantasy GM looking for a cheap investment pitcher who still may have something left in the tak............Im talking about Randy Johnson.
Last year was by far the worst of johnson's career where he posted a 5.00 era, a 1.24 Whip and 174 k's though he had 17 wins. Looks like he just needs to fix that ERA and he will be a valubale part to any fantasy team right? Since joining the yankees Johnson's K/9, k/bb, and hr/9 have significantly declined which should probably be expected seeing he was 40+ when he joined the club. Nobody can pitch forever and even the best pitchers skill's will decline at some point.\
What most people remember about the unit last year was his playoff meltdown. What a lot of people fail to recall is his slightly improved stats in the second half. Both his k/bb (2.6-3.2) and his bb/9 (3.00 - 2.3) as well as his Hr rate (1.3- 1.1) improved. Batters also hit more GB against him. His rise in ERA was just him getting unlucky in terms of runners scoring on base becuase almost all of his stats improved. One thing that has not changed about Randy Johnson is that he still dominates Lhers only allowing them to hit .194.
Randy Johnson is not what he once was but with a trip to the Nl in a fairly weak NL West combined with his slightly better second half numbers i think he is fully capable of 15 wins, sub 4 ERA, 1.1 whip and around 200 K's.
So if you guys email me some questions at ajopiela@yahoo.com i will email you back as soon as i can and will adress the good ones in upcoming posts. So once again sorry for the temporary delay i will try to get in a few posts this week.
Last year was by far the worst of johnson's career where he posted a 5.00 era, a 1.24 Whip and 174 k's though he had 17 wins. Looks like he just needs to fix that ERA and he will be a valubale part to any fantasy team right? Since joining the yankees Johnson's K/9, k/bb, and hr/9 have significantly declined which should probably be expected seeing he was 40+ when he joined the club. Nobody can pitch forever and even the best pitchers skill's will decline at some point.\
What most people remember about the unit last year was his playoff meltdown. What a lot of people fail to recall is his slightly improved stats in the second half. Both his k/bb (2.6-3.2) and his bb/9 (3.00 - 2.3) as well as his Hr rate (1.3- 1.1) improved. Batters also hit more GB against him. His rise in ERA was just him getting unlucky in terms of runners scoring on base becuase almost all of his stats improved. One thing that has not changed about Randy Johnson is that he still dominates Lhers only allowing them to hit .194.
Randy Johnson is not what he once was but with a trip to the Nl in a fairly weak NL West combined with his slightly better second half numbers i think he is fully capable of 15 wins, sub 4 ERA, 1.1 whip and around 200 K's.
So if you guys email me some questions at ajopiela@yahoo.com i will email you back as soon as i can and will adress the good ones in upcoming posts. So once again sorry for the temporary delay i will try to get in a few posts this week.
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