Today as i was sifting through the fantasybaseballexpress message board, i saw that "pirates" asked if a case could be made for any player other than Albert Pujols to be 2007's #1 draft pick.
If somebody put a gun to my head at this instant and asked me who i would take first overall, I would stutter out as if it were a natural reflex, "Albert Pujols." However if this same guy came back in April, when i would have had a chance to think it through i might have a different answer.
The one guy that i can see picking above Pujols is Jose Reyes. If Reyes exceeds expectations this year he could bat .330 with 110 runs, 90 rbi,25 hr, and 20-80 sb. Thats a 5 category player. The difference between him and Pujols is that Pujols will never give you Sb's, though he will probably hit 30 more HR, with 45 more RBI. I personally see speed as more valuable than power, and for that reason would consider picking Reyes above Pujols.
Mikey has admitted to considering picking Soriano 1st overall. Let me tell you why he is wrong...... I see Soriano this year as a 3 category player. He is around a 280 hitter, but playing in a smaller park i see that less of his balls will fall for hits, lowering his Ba. I could see Soriano hitting .270 this year. In addition to his BA, Soriano's RBI may go down if he does indeed bat leadoff. Thid leaves Soriano with Hr,SB, and Runs. I see Soriano scoring more runs this year in a better lineup, but i see his HR and SB slightly deteriorating now that he has finally signed the big contract. In the end you could potentially be left with; 35 HR, 35 Sb, .265-270 Avg,85 Rbi, and 100+ r. You should not pay for his 40/40 potential seeing as you can pick sleeper power/speed picks in the end of the draft. Instead pick Reyes or Pujols, and build around them.
"Pirates" also joked that Mauer could be the #1 pick, but seriously asked where i would rate him. I would rate Mauer at the Top of the Catcher position which is by far the most scarce in fantasy, and as a result would have no problem picking him in the third round of a 12 team mixed league. He is a real 320-340 hitter. He is a great contact hitter, and has a great eye. He hit 36 doubles last year, and with a rising fly ball percentage he should turn a few of those into HRs. I think you can expect 20 HR, a 330 avg 90 runs, 8 sb, and 90 rbi from Mauer this year. I have him above Mcann becuase he is a better contact/patient hitter. In addition to this Mcann's sudden power came from an elevated fly ball% and this could just as easily turn into more pop outs. Mauer just seems like a more proven/safe player to me this year. Mauer will not win any categories for you but he can help you in everything (especially average)...From a Catcher,ill take it!
That is all i have for today, i would like to remind you to keep sending me questions at ajopiela@yahoo.com or through the fbe message board, and dont forget to sign up for the Fantasy Man Leagues. As of Now im in a $50 draft scheduled for this saturday. I would love the company/competition of playing against some of the people who read my blog. Who knows maybe you know more about fantasy baseball than i do, well get in the league then, and we will find out. Thats why i am in it, is to see how my humble views measure up against guys like Mikey who are in the bussiness. By proving yourself, you gain respect, among the fantasy basbeall community, and thats how you get to be an expert by putting your name/skills out there... (Not that i know anything about that(:
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