Drum role please............
Ryan Howard!
Im not saying that if you already took Howard with the 2-4th pick in your draf that your season is finished before it started. Howard is an excellent power source and has been able to post a solid ba his whole career. By no stretch am i saying that Howard will not have a good year. Though he is not totally established as a big leaguer, is power is for real. However before you choose howard over guys like Soriano and Reyes you should consider:
- Most of the time players do not repeat or improve on career years in HR
- Teams will certainly stop pitching to him with Burell behind him
- Howard has carried a sub 70% contact% with him his whole carrer, + he strikes out a lot. Though he has played with this stat his whole career, so has Adam Dunn. Just some food for thought.
So as you can seee there is nothing hugley numerical. However the point is that Howard is going to regress a little bit at best this year. If he hit say 10 less homers, that puts him into a category with guys like Konerko, Morneau, and Texiera. In addition to this his terrible contact% always points to the inevitable ba drop. Still Howard should be drafted above all other 1b other than Pujols. My whole point here is that if Howard regresses (which he will) a little bit this year he is not all that much more valuable than other 1b you can pick up another round or two later. You would be better off taking Soriano/Arod/Reyes/Crawford/ or even Santana over Ryan Howard this year
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
FBE Writer's League
The Trash Talk is already staring, thanks to the Great Pierre. My team was the subject of his negative comments. I may have made some stupid picks because i was literally sprinting from room to room doing the draft and watching 24, but i still think i turned out a great team and i promise to bring it home for all my loyal readers.
Just a quick analysis of my team......
I was drafting out of the #9 slot, which in my opinion is the worst pick you can possibly have in a 12-14 team league. I was really hoping that either Arod or Crawford would slip to me, but they didnt. Instead i was left with Beltran or Ortiz. I took Beltran because i still think he has Sb upside. Coming back around i would have been thrilled to get Sizemore, but i dint so i settled for Bay who i also think has Sb upside this year. So with my first two picks i felt that i had achieved a balence in the hitting categories.
With a late pick in the third round i was targeting either Furcal to put me over the hump in average and give me additional power and speed, but i was too tempted when Anduw jones was still there. I know his average is low, but i expect that to improve plus it is his "walk" year so he should have some added insparation to play. I actually expect this to be his career year seeing that he is at prime age.
Without having known i had added 3 OF with my 1st 3 picks, totally filling my OF...UHOH!!!
Coming back around i took Konerko for 1b to give me average and add to my strong power stats. In the 5th round, i may have made a mistake by selecting Johnny Damon. Being my 4th Of i knew i had to plug hiom into my Utility spot. I like Damon this year though, and think he should go 20/20/90/120/290. In the 6th round i made a homer pick by choosing Dice-K. I believe in this guy.... and he could potentially be the steal of the draft. People say that he will take a step back coming over from Japan, but the reality of the situation is that no batters have faced him, and that should only work to his benefit.
In round 7 i dont want to say i wasted a pick, but i took Juan Pierre knowing i cant play him. My team was a little light on speed, so i couldnt pass up on his 60 sb. He is trade bait/insurence if one of my other OF gets hurt.
I think i added to the quality of my pitching by picking JJ Putz up in the 8th. He has a good ERA/WHIP+ Seattle should be in a lot of close games. He doesnt have any job competition either. In the 9th i added to my closer by picking Chad Cordero. He is still young+ he posted career best stats in the 2nd half of last year. I could really see him and Putz being the top 2 closers this year, not to toot my own horn..
I took my 2nd starting pither in the 10th by selecting Vazquez who i will continue to say has been unlucky for the past several seasons, and will put forth a cy young campaign this year. In rounds 11 and 12 I filled my MI by selecting Barfield/Rentaria. Both are good speed/power/avearage picks so i was happy i got them that late. It wasnt my plan to wait on MI this late, and i dont usually ignore Position Scarcity, but i had to roll the way the draft was going... In round 13 i reached for Jonothan Broxton because i thought Mikey would take him. He is going to help me in WHIP/ERA, even if he dosent close which i think he will by mid season at the latest.
In the 14th i filled my gaping MI hole by picking Ensberg. I know he had a bad average last year, but you need to look at his first half/2nd half splits, and then tell me he wasnt playing hurt. Round 15 Clemons... I have nothing to say... Autopick...
If Gil Meche gets his control under control no pun intended he will be well worth my 16th round investment. I think the Riyals could suprise a lot of people this year, and i think Meche will be a big reason for that. John Lieber isnt done either.. He is a big game pitcher and i see the Phillies being in a lot of them this year.
As i have in every draft this year i took Pudge. He's a fine value in the 18th. He should go 10/10 with a good avg on a good T's team. This is why you dont take Mauer in the 3rd. I am kind of rolling the dice on Kei Igawa in the 19th. He should get wins at the least. I sured up my MI with Durham in the 20th....
I took some of my sleeper pitchers in the 21/22. Manuel Corpas will be the CO closer at some point this year, and if Linecum makes the SF giants he will be this year's Verlander but better..
Jeff Francis should be an all star this year and i am willing to bet that with my 23rd pick, Delcarmen could be the closer for the Sox who's bullpen situation is totally up in the air at the moment. I finished off the draft with kiko calero=RP LIMA pick..
So sorry that was more of a rant than an organized article, I will be posting/Possibly podcasting more in the upcoming days... Stay tuned!
Just a quick analysis of my team......
I was drafting out of the #9 slot, which in my opinion is the worst pick you can possibly have in a 12-14 team league. I was really hoping that either Arod or Crawford would slip to me, but they didnt. Instead i was left with Beltran or Ortiz. I took Beltran because i still think he has Sb upside. Coming back around i would have been thrilled to get Sizemore, but i dint so i settled for Bay who i also think has Sb upside this year. So with my first two picks i felt that i had achieved a balence in the hitting categories.
With a late pick in the third round i was targeting either Furcal to put me over the hump in average and give me additional power and speed, but i was too tempted when Anduw jones was still there. I know his average is low, but i expect that to improve plus it is his "walk" year so he should have some added insparation to play. I actually expect this to be his career year seeing that he is at prime age.
Without having known i had added 3 OF with my 1st 3 picks, totally filling my OF...UHOH!!!
Coming back around i took Konerko for 1b to give me average and add to my strong power stats. In the 5th round, i may have made a mistake by selecting Johnny Damon. Being my 4th Of i knew i had to plug hiom into my Utility spot. I like Damon this year though, and think he should go 20/20/90/120/290. In the 6th round i made a homer pick by choosing Dice-K. I believe in this guy.... and he could potentially be the steal of the draft. People say that he will take a step back coming over from Japan, but the reality of the situation is that no batters have faced him, and that should only work to his benefit.
In round 7 i dont want to say i wasted a pick, but i took Juan Pierre knowing i cant play him. My team was a little light on speed, so i couldnt pass up on his 60 sb. He is trade bait/insurence if one of my other OF gets hurt.
I think i added to the quality of my pitching by picking JJ Putz up in the 8th. He has a good ERA/WHIP+ Seattle should be in a lot of close games. He doesnt have any job competition either. In the 9th i added to my closer by picking Chad Cordero. He is still young+ he posted career best stats in the 2nd half of last year. I could really see him and Putz being the top 2 closers this year, not to toot my own horn..
I took my 2nd starting pither in the 10th by selecting Vazquez who i will continue to say has been unlucky for the past several seasons, and will put forth a cy young campaign this year. In rounds 11 and 12 I filled my MI by selecting Barfield/Rentaria. Both are good speed/power/avearage picks so i was happy i got them that late. It wasnt my plan to wait on MI this late, and i dont usually ignore Position Scarcity, but i had to roll the way the draft was going... In round 13 i reached for Jonothan Broxton because i thought Mikey would take him. He is going to help me in WHIP/ERA, even if he dosent close which i think he will by mid season at the latest.
In the 14th i filled my gaping MI hole by picking Ensberg. I know he had a bad average last year, but you need to look at his first half/2nd half splits, and then tell me he wasnt playing hurt. Round 15 Clemons... I have nothing to say... Autopick...
If Gil Meche gets his control under control no pun intended he will be well worth my 16th round investment. I think the Riyals could suprise a lot of people this year, and i think Meche will be a big reason for that. John Lieber isnt done either.. He is a big game pitcher and i see the Phillies being in a lot of them this year.
As i have in every draft this year i took Pudge. He's a fine value in the 18th. He should go 10/10 with a good avg on a good T's team. This is why you dont take Mauer in the 3rd. I am kind of rolling the dice on Kei Igawa in the 19th. He should get wins at the least. I sured up my MI with Durham in the 20th....
I took some of my sleeper pitchers in the 21/22. Manuel Corpas will be the CO closer at some point this year, and if Linecum makes the SF giants he will be this year's Verlander but better..
Jeff Francis should be an all star this year and i am willing to bet that with my 23rd pick, Delcarmen could be the closer for the Sox who's bullpen situation is totally up in the air at the moment. I finished off the draft with kiko calero=RP LIMA pick..
So sorry that was more of a rant than an organized article, I will be posting/Possibly podcasting more in the upcoming days... Stay tuned!
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