HR Draft Tool

Everyone seems enamored with projecting speed these days. Every year Mikey comes out with a Stolen Bases draft tool, but why no Homeruns? If you think about it, Homeruns are a better indicator of rotisiree value than Stolen bases. A player who clobbers HRs will inevitably suceed in AT LEAST 3 categories, where a speedster can only guarentee 2 categories. So i thought it would be useful to post a Homerun draft tool. If nothing else it should give you a quick look at which guys will be able to carry you to the 300 HR mark in 2008.

Note: I am basing all these tiers on POTENTIAL. I am giving guys the benefit of the doubt. That is not to say that these projections are lofty however. I am just saying that these "tiers" are the amount of production that you can reasonably expect.

Tier 1 (50+ HR Potential)
1. Ryan Howard
2. Prince Fielder
- These guys should be gone by the end of the first round. Both will contribute nicley in R and RBI on top of this. Given the choice i would take Fielder. Fielder is a contact hitter who does not strike out as much as Howard. His ceiling is also higher. I think we may have seen the best from Howard two seasons ago. Dont be suprised if you get a .270 avg from him. He earned it.

Tier 2 (40-45 Hr Potential)
3. Albert Pujols
4. Mark Texiera
5. Alex Rodriguez
6. Lance Berkman
6. David Ortiz
7. Carlos Pena
8. Adam Dunn
9. Ryan Bruan
- If you dont take a Howard or a Fielder and the first round and go for Santana or a speedster instead i would suggest grabbing two of the guys in the second tier. Texiera is one of my favorite players this year. All of his stats and his fly ball% rose when he moved to Atlanta this year. I know people are generally down on him because he has been a disspointment the past few year, but i really belive that he could join the first tier this year. Pujols and A-rod are perenial early first round picks. However dont grab them expecting them to hit you 50Hr. They should both grab around 45. I think Lance Berkan is an attractive 3rd or late second round pick. He hit 23 HR in the 2nd half of last season compared to the 11 in the first half. That tells the story. Dunn and Pena should net about 40 hr each. Dont be too afraid of their average. Just make sure you grab a guy with a superb average to cancel them out.

Tier 3 (30-39 Hr Potential)
9. Matt Holiday
10. Miguel Cabrera
11. Carlos Lee
12. Alfonso Soriano
13. David Wright
14. Chase Utley
15. Carlos Beltran
16. Vlad Guererro
17. Jimmy Rollins
18. Travis Hafner
19. Manny Ramirez
20. Justin Morneau
21. Aramis Ramirez
22. Pat Burell
+ Dereck Lee
- With a few exceptions, those guys could finish in any order. However, the point i am trying to make is that if you snag two of those guys in addition to either two guys in tier 2 or one guy in tier one..you will have roughly half your Homerun potential in 3 Picks. You could even have more if you "load up" on power.

Lets take this potential draft i am coming up with off the top of my head for example. We will focus on the power.

You have the 5th Pick:
1st round- David Wright- 30 Hr in the bank
2nd round Mark Texiera- 45 Hr in the bank
3rd round- David Ortiz slips another 40 Hr
4th round- Go speed here. Pick up a Chone Figgins or a Brian Robers (who can also hit 20)
5th round- Go for the knock out and take Pena or Dunn

- So potentially you could have more than half of your Hr hole filled in your first 5 rounds while still picking guys with speed (Wright/Roberts/Figgins). That is why it is important to resist the temptation of chosing a closer early or staring pitchers.

Tier 4 (20-29 Hr Potential)
23. Hanley Ramirez
24. Grady sizemore
25. Brandon Phillips
26. BJ Upton
27. Nick Markakis
28. Victor Martinez
29. Russell Martin
30. Curtis Granderson
31. Alex Rios
32. Bobby Abreu
33. Torri Hunter
34. Delmon Young
35. Garett Atkins
36. Troy Tulowitski
37. Dan Uggla
38. Jason Bay
39. Adrian Gonzalez
40. Ian Kinsler
41. Paul Konerko
42. Hideki Matsui
43. Brad Hawpe
44. Jermaine Dye (Who i belive will come back and COULD hit 35)
45. Jim Thome (Will hit 30+ if he stays healthy, but my bet is that he does not)
46. Adrian Beltre
- There are probably more of these guys. And most of them are interchangable. So what was the point of that tier. Plain and simple, it was to demonstrate that NONE of those guys will eclipse 30 hr on my projections (or very few). Power had been declining in recent years, and if you bank on any of the above guys getting 30+ HR you are in trouble. If you want my personal bets i will say:

- Jermaine Dye wins comeback player of the year and hits 35 HR.
- Jason Bay goes back to old levels and is an excellent value.
- Curtis Granderson approaches 30/30 and becomes a star.
- By the way: Do NOT WRITE OFF ADRIAN BELTRE

Tier 5 (The guys that people think will be power sources but wiil not)
- This is not an actual tier. I dont think it would be useful to sit here and type which guys i think will hit 10 hr and which guys i think will hit 15. Instead i think it would be more useful to tell you which guys WILL NOT produce power this year that are expected to

- Crawford and Reyes- People have been saying for years that these guys will be 20 hr hitters. I have not seen it yet. And we will not in 08 either. Reyes is more likley to break out than Crawford.
- Jeter
- Mauer
- Rickie Weeks- His contact skills are atrocious. They will keep him from fufiling his potential.
- Posada

That concludes my Hr draft tool. If nothing else, it should be a good visual aid for comparing the players in terms of power.