1B
1. Pujols
2. Fielder
3. Ortiz
4. Howard
5. Texiera
6. Morneau
7. Berkman
8. Hafner
9. Pena
10.Martinez (C)
11.D. Lee
12.Atkins (3b)
13.A. Gonzalez
14.Delgado
15.Konerko
16.Laroche
17.Overbay
18.Garko
19.Giambi
20.Youkilis
2B
1.Upton
2.Utley
3.Phillips
4.Roberts
5.Cano
6.Kendrick
7.Polanco
8.Pedroia
9.Weeks
10.Kinsler
11.Uggla
12.Kent
13.F. Sanchez
14.Johnson
15.Matsui
16.Castillo
17.Cabrera
18.Hill
19.Theriot
20.Frandsden
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Free Plug
As champions are crowned in fantasy football and the new year aproaches, it is time to start thinking about fantasy baseball. But where to start?
First of all i would absolutly encoruage listening to The Fantasy Man's podcasts and utilizing any resources that he can offer you. However if your're looking for my personal recomendation of where to find an inside edge that not everyone has or is willing to dig for, then i would suggest buying Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2008. I have been using this guide for the past few years, and i owe the sucess i have had to do.
I wont go into too much detail, but basically it uses sabermetrics to predict player performance. And i am still shocked at how accurate it is. They were right about just about everything last year....creepy.
So here is a link to it http://www.baseballhq.com/books/bf.shtml .
On another note, Shandler's website www.baseballhq.com is also probably worth subscribing to. However it is a bit pricy...especially for someone playing in numerous money leagues.
Happy Holidays!
First of all i would absolutly encoruage listening to The Fantasy Man's podcasts and utilizing any resources that he can offer you. However if your're looking for my personal recomendation of where to find an inside edge that not everyone has or is willing to dig for, then i would suggest buying Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2008. I have been using this guide for the past few years, and i owe the sucess i have had to do.
I wont go into too much detail, but basically it uses sabermetrics to predict player performance. And i am still shocked at how accurate it is. They were right about just about everything last year....creepy.
So here is a link to it http://www.baseballhq.com/books/bf.shtml .
On another note, Shandler's website www.baseballhq.com is also probably worth subscribing to. However it is a bit pricy...especially for someone playing in numerous money leagues.
Happy Holidays!
Monday, November 26, 2007
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Still Here
As the summer and early fall months rolled on, i found myself in the undesirable position that most fantasy baseball owners were in. My teams did not have a serious shot at winning, so i threw in the towel for the most part. I finished in 5th place of the 13 teams in the Fantasy Baseball Express Writer's League. I think that should validate that although i do not have the credentials of some of the more experienced writer's on this site, i know what im talking about.
At the moment all of my fantasy football teams are in contention and im working on SportingNews' Ultimate Fantasy Basketball. It is a good time. No longer am i in need of a cohost or material, i just need the technology.
At the moment all of my fantasy football teams are in contention and im working on SportingNews' Ultimate Fantasy Basketball. It is a good time. No longer am i in need of a cohost or material, i just need the technology.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Quick Closer Update
- Jonathan Broxton Will temporily take over the closers role in LA with Saito hurt with a shoulder problem. Broxton was less than stellar in his stint as the closer earlier in the year but still maintains the elite skills that would cause a fantasy owner to belive he got unlucky, and was nervous. Dont count him as money in the bank down the stretch but he presents a relativly buy low oppurtunity for 08.
- Manuel Corpas has oficially taken over the Rockies Closer role (As i said he would before the season started) thanks to a combination of health and diminishing skill on the part of Brian Fuentes. If you can still buy Corpas low he will provide plentiful saves down the stretch, and i expect him to carry me to the top of the saves department in leagues i drafted him in.
- Huston Street is back....good news for the A's. He is still a risky pickup but when healthy he is the best option they have, especially considering the recent poor perfromance of Oakland's pen
- Ryan Dempster has the job back as the cubs closer.....they have been winning so you would have to think hed get some saves down the stretch....
- Tom Gordon is still relativly hurt but MILES better than anyone else in the Phillies pen. Alfonseca/Mesa....he may even be on the wire...beware of Brett Myers though
- Chris Ray couls lose his job soon....hes been a hige dissapointment this year. Scoop up Bradford or Walker for insurence
-
- Manuel Corpas has oficially taken over the Rockies Closer role (As i said he would before the season started) thanks to a combination of health and diminishing skill on the part of Brian Fuentes. If you can still buy Corpas low he will provide plentiful saves down the stretch, and i expect him to carry me to the top of the saves department in leagues i drafted him in.
- Huston Street is back....good news for the A's. He is still a risky pickup but when healthy he is the best option they have, especially considering the recent poor perfromance of Oakland's pen
- Ryan Dempster has the job back as the cubs closer.....they have been winning so you would have to think hed get some saves down the stretch....
- Tom Gordon is still relativly hurt but MILES better than anyone else in the Phillies pen. Alfonseca/Mesa....he may even be on the wire...beware of Brett Myers though
- Chris Ray couls lose his job soon....hes been a hige dissapointment this year. Scoop up Bradford or Walker for insurence
-
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Second Half Targets and Dumps
Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz: Both of their power #'s are significantly down. They are to young to have a significant drop off. Excepet huge 2nd halfs from both.
Carlos Delgado: His fly ball% is unusually high this year which explains why the power is there but the avg is not. His contact% still shows that he is hitting the ball and not striking out. You can expect Delgado to sustain the power in the 2nd half while raising his batting avg also
Vernon Wells: Very similar situation to Delgado...Flyball% is up but avergage is down while basic hitting skills remain strong.
Todd Helton : His days of hitting for significant power may be gone but he will be a perenial 300 hitter as long as he plays. He is drawing the walk at an astonishing mark this year while maintaining his subperb contact skills. Plus, remember what he did in the 2nd half last year? I recently picked up Helton and Ricke Weeks for Adrian Gonzalez in one of my leagues....im pretty happy with that move going foward
Manny Corpas: I have been absolutley raving about this guy all year. He has posted great numbers all year, and in case you didnt notice Brian Fuentes will miss the all star game with a leg injury.
Be Careful of.....
Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Jamie Shields: All of these guys are on pace to pitch a lot of innings and exceed their workload significantly from previous years. Just watch these young guys carefully for a fall in their k/9 which could indicate a hidden injury and an oppurtunity for you to sell them
Dan Haren and John Lackey: Both posses great numbers with not so great supporting stats (k/9 Contol and Command) Sell High
An update on the FBE writers league i am currently in 4th while still having Andruw Jones in my starting lineup. I expect a huge year for him becuase he knows if he doesnt perform he will lose a lot of money in the FA market this winter.
Carlos Delgado: His fly ball% is unusually high this year which explains why the power is there but the avg is not. His contact% still shows that he is hitting the ball and not striking out. You can expect Delgado to sustain the power in the 2nd half while raising his batting avg also
Vernon Wells: Very similar situation to Delgado...Flyball% is up but avergage is down while basic hitting skills remain strong.
Todd Helton : His days of hitting for significant power may be gone but he will be a perenial 300 hitter as long as he plays. He is drawing the walk at an astonishing mark this year while maintaining his subperb contact skills. Plus, remember what he did in the 2nd half last year? I recently picked up Helton and Ricke Weeks for Adrian Gonzalez in one of my leagues....im pretty happy with that move going foward
Manny Corpas: I have been absolutley raving about this guy all year. He has posted great numbers all year, and in case you didnt notice Brian Fuentes will miss the all star game with a leg injury.
Be Careful of.....
Cole Hamels, Justin Verlander, Jamie Shields: All of these guys are on pace to pitch a lot of innings and exceed their workload significantly from previous years. Just watch these young guys carefully for a fall in their k/9 which could indicate a hidden injury and an oppurtunity for you to sell them
Dan Haren and John Lackey: Both posses great numbers with not so great supporting stats (k/9 Contol and Command) Sell High
An update on the FBE writers league i am currently in 4th while still having Andruw Jones in my starting lineup. I expect a huge year for him becuase he knows if he doesnt perform he will lose a lot of money in the FA market this winter.
Sunday, May 27, 2007
June Already?
June 1st is approaching... In my opinion the begining of June is when you need to start closley examing your team and evaluating your strengths and weaknesses. Its time to cut those guys who you thought were sleepers at the draft, but havent yet panned out.
So far it has been a pretty tough year for me in particular. In my two fantasybaseballexpress related leagues i am in 5/12 and 11/13. The league i am in 5th in is the Superior Mendoza Swingers League which Mikey talked about on the last podcast. Until very recently i was holding down 3rd solidly. I took a very unique apprach to this league. I filled my pitching staff with mostly middle relivers. Im talking about guys like Jonathan Broxton and Manny Corpas, who have thus far panned out. I got Jose Valverde at a discout. I belive i didnt draft a SP until round 14. My current starters are Escobar, Burnett, Vazquez, and wandy Rodriguez. Im doing solid in ERA and WHIP as expected but im in dead last in K/W. Unless my hitting really picks it up, i will realize that my strategy failed and that its time to get some SP's.
The Fantasybaseballexpress Writer's League has been pretty interesting thus far. As i may have stated before i was watching 24 during the draft and therefore didnt draft as well as i would have thought. In short my offense is a mess. I'll leave it at this i have Konerko A.Jones Ensberg + (had) Barfield all starting for me. My pitching is pretty solid w/ Dice K Vazquez Harang J Sheilds + Gil Meche. I think as my players pick it up my team will go up the standings a little bit..
Dont Give Up On:
Chone Figgins: Hes making contact and has a high gb%. His luck will eventually reverse itself and he will start contributing.
Paul Konerko: I have no reasoning for this. Its just as simple as that given past history he has to turn it around very soon. Try to buy him low.
It may be time
Andruw Jones: He must be hiding an injury
Jack Cust: His contact% eventually showed itself. If you can get any sort of value for him get rid of him now
So far it has been a pretty tough year for me in particular. In my two fantasybaseballexpress related leagues i am in 5/12 and 11/13. The league i am in 5th in is the Superior Mendoza Swingers League which Mikey talked about on the last podcast. Until very recently i was holding down 3rd solidly. I took a very unique apprach to this league. I filled my pitching staff with mostly middle relivers. Im talking about guys like Jonathan Broxton and Manny Corpas, who have thus far panned out. I got Jose Valverde at a discout. I belive i didnt draft a SP until round 14. My current starters are Escobar, Burnett, Vazquez, and wandy Rodriguez. Im doing solid in ERA and WHIP as expected but im in dead last in K/W. Unless my hitting really picks it up, i will realize that my strategy failed and that its time to get some SP's.
The Fantasybaseballexpress Writer's League has been pretty interesting thus far. As i may have stated before i was watching 24 during the draft and therefore didnt draft as well as i would have thought. In short my offense is a mess. I'll leave it at this i have Konerko A.Jones Ensberg + (had) Barfield all starting for me. My pitching is pretty solid w/ Dice K Vazquez Harang J Sheilds + Gil Meche. I think as my players pick it up my team will go up the standings a little bit..
Dont Give Up On:
Chone Figgins: Hes making contact and has a high gb%. His luck will eventually reverse itself and he will start contributing.
Paul Konerko: I have no reasoning for this. Its just as simple as that given past history he has to turn it around very soon. Try to buy him low.
It may be time
Andruw Jones: He must be hiding an injury
Jack Cust: His contact% eventually showed itself. If you can get any sort of value for him get rid of him now
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Hop on the Forums
I noticed that the forums are pretty inactive. I would like to encourage you all to sign up for them and start posting. We have a very effective/fun forum for this other podcast i listen to. Its great we have built a defined community. This is somthing i as well as Mike im sure would love to achieve for fantasybaseball express.
Thanks
Thanks
Saturday, May 5, 2007
Brett Myers (You Knew This Was Coming)
---After being bumped from the Philles rotation after just three bad starts Brett Myers notched his first save last night with Tom Gordon on the 15 day DL with a hurt throwing rotator cuff.
Though Myers was posting the best k/9 ratio of his career he was moved to the bullpen because of his loss of control as well as his 1.8 hr/9 rate. These stats have never been a problem for myers in his career, and theres no reason to belive that they should start now. However his stats in the bulpen have been better than ever. Myers is only 26. If Gordon is out for an extended period of time he could be an elite closer. But keep him anyway becuase i have a feeling we will see him back in the rotation.
--- It looks like Henry Owens is the real deal in Florida notching 4 saves since the removal of Jorge Julio. Taylor Tankersly looks like the set up guy. Forget about Julio...
--- There could be no better time to buy low on Mark Texiera hitting 3 HR in the last week while still keeping his stats dissapointing to an unaware owner.
-- One final note for today. Todd Lincecum will make his first Major league start tonight. The kid has amazing stuff. You could be looking at this years Dontrelle Willis so to speak. The game is supposed to be on ESPN tonight... Stay tuned...
Though Myers was posting the best k/9 ratio of his career he was moved to the bullpen because of his loss of control as well as his 1.8 hr/9 rate. These stats have never been a problem for myers in his career, and theres no reason to belive that they should start now. However his stats in the bulpen have been better than ever. Myers is only 26. If Gordon is out for an extended period of time he could be an elite closer. But keep him anyway becuase i have a feeling we will see him back in the rotation.
--- It looks like Henry Owens is the real deal in Florida notching 4 saves since the removal of Jorge Julio. Taylor Tankersly looks like the set up guy. Forget about Julio...
--- There could be no better time to buy low on Mark Texiera hitting 3 HR in the last week while still keeping his stats dissapointing to an unaware owner.
-- One final note for today. Todd Lincecum will make his first Major league start tonight. The kid has amazing stuff. You could be looking at this years Dontrelle Willis so to speak. The game is supposed to be on ESPN tonight... Stay tuned...
Friday, April 6, 2007
Sell High
I'll be coming out with a weekley planner in a few days, but for now just take into consideration a few of these closers i am telling you to sell now if you can get any sort of value for them.
Jorge Julio- His strikeout ability makes him an intriguing possibility for Floria as their closer. Do not let this fool you! Though he does posses the pitches to strike batters out, he control is awful plus he has a very high home run rate. Neither of these things are good for a pitcher to have let alone a closer who's job is always extremley volitile. He already blew a save, so his ocnfidence is probably a little shakey. Tyler Tankersly is going to be activated from the DL this week, so i would recomend picking him up while you still can seeing that its only a matter of time before julio loses the job.
Solomen Torres- Got off to a hot start acquiring 3 saves right off the bat. The fact of the matter is that he does not have any elite skills. His Contorl/K rate/ and command of his pitches are about mediocre. Last season he also had a high whip which shows batters got on base against him. The fact that he posted good #s show that he got a little lucky. I would recomend selling Torres high, but who knows he could hold on to the job.
David Riske- Became the closer when dotel went on the Dl. Plain and simple he had pretty medicore stats to begin with, and they have been steadily decling for 3 years. He dosent strike anyone out, and his control coupled with his tendancy to give up the long ball will lose him the job soon.
Jorge Julio- His strikeout ability makes him an intriguing possibility for Floria as their closer. Do not let this fool you! Though he does posses the pitches to strike batters out, he control is awful plus he has a very high home run rate. Neither of these things are good for a pitcher to have let alone a closer who's job is always extremley volitile. He already blew a save, so his ocnfidence is probably a little shakey. Tyler Tankersly is going to be activated from the DL this week, so i would recomend picking him up while you still can seeing that its only a matter of time before julio loses the job.
Solomen Torres- Got off to a hot start acquiring 3 saves right off the bat. The fact of the matter is that he does not have any elite skills. His Contorl/K rate/ and command of his pitches are about mediocre. Last season he also had a high whip which shows batters got on base against him. The fact that he posted good #s show that he got a little lucky. I would recomend selling Torres high, but who knows he could hold on to the job.
David Riske- Became the closer when dotel went on the Dl. Plain and simple he had pretty medicore stats to begin with, and they have been steadily decling for 3 years. He dosent strike anyone out, and his control coupled with his tendancy to give up the long ball will lose him the job soon.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
2007 First Round Bust Canidate
Drum role please............
Ryan Howard!
Im not saying that if you already took Howard with the 2-4th pick in your draf that your season is finished before it started. Howard is an excellent power source and has been able to post a solid ba his whole career. By no stretch am i saying that Howard will not have a good year. Though he is not totally established as a big leaguer, is power is for real. However before you choose howard over guys like Soriano and Reyes you should consider:
- Most of the time players do not repeat or improve on career years in HR
- Teams will certainly stop pitching to him with Burell behind him
- Howard has carried a sub 70% contact% with him his whole carrer, + he strikes out a lot. Though he has played with this stat his whole career, so has Adam Dunn. Just some food for thought.
So as you can seee there is nothing hugley numerical. However the point is that Howard is going to regress a little bit at best this year. If he hit say 10 less homers, that puts him into a category with guys like Konerko, Morneau, and Texiera. In addition to this his terrible contact% always points to the inevitable ba drop. Still Howard should be drafted above all other 1b other than Pujols. My whole point here is that if Howard regresses (which he will) a little bit this year he is not all that much more valuable than other 1b you can pick up another round or two later. You would be better off taking Soriano/Arod/Reyes/Crawford/ or even Santana over Ryan Howard this year
Ryan Howard!
Im not saying that if you already took Howard with the 2-4th pick in your draf that your season is finished before it started. Howard is an excellent power source and has been able to post a solid ba his whole career. By no stretch am i saying that Howard will not have a good year. Though he is not totally established as a big leaguer, is power is for real. However before you choose howard over guys like Soriano and Reyes you should consider:
- Most of the time players do not repeat or improve on career years in HR
- Teams will certainly stop pitching to him with Burell behind him
- Howard has carried a sub 70% contact% with him his whole carrer, + he strikes out a lot. Though he has played with this stat his whole career, so has Adam Dunn. Just some food for thought.
So as you can seee there is nothing hugley numerical. However the point is that Howard is going to regress a little bit at best this year. If he hit say 10 less homers, that puts him into a category with guys like Konerko, Morneau, and Texiera. In addition to this his terrible contact% always points to the inevitable ba drop. Still Howard should be drafted above all other 1b other than Pujols. My whole point here is that if Howard regresses (which he will) a little bit this year he is not all that much more valuable than other 1b you can pick up another round or two later. You would be better off taking Soriano/Arod/Reyes/Crawford/ or even Santana over Ryan Howard this year
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
FBE Writer's League
The Trash Talk is already staring, thanks to the Great Pierre. My team was the subject of his negative comments. I may have made some stupid picks because i was literally sprinting from room to room doing the draft and watching 24, but i still think i turned out a great team and i promise to bring it home for all my loyal readers.
Just a quick analysis of my team......
I was drafting out of the #9 slot, which in my opinion is the worst pick you can possibly have in a 12-14 team league. I was really hoping that either Arod or Crawford would slip to me, but they didnt. Instead i was left with Beltran or Ortiz. I took Beltran because i still think he has Sb upside. Coming back around i would have been thrilled to get Sizemore, but i dint so i settled for Bay who i also think has Sb upside this year. So with my first two picks i felt that i had achieved a balence in the hitting categories.
With a late pick in the third round i was targeting either Furcal to put me over the hump in average and give me additional power and speed, but i was too tempted when Anduw jones was still there. I know his average is low, but i expect that to improve plus it is his "walk" year so he should have some added insparation to play. I actually expect this to be his career year seeing that he is at prime age.
Without having known i had added 3 OF with my 1st 3 picks, totally filling my OF...UHOH!!!
Coming back around i took Konerko for 1b to give me average and add to my strong power stats. In the 5th round, i may have made a mistake by selecting Johnny Damon. Being my 4th Of i knew i had to plug hiom into my Utility spot. I like Damon this year though, and think he should go 20/20/90/120/290. In the 6th round i made a homer pick by choosing Dice-K. I believe in this guy.... and he could potentially be the steal of the draft. People say that he will take a step back coming over from Japan, but the reality of the situation is that no batters have faced him, and that should only work to his benefit.
In round 7 i dont want to say i wasted a pick, but i took Juan Pierre knowing i cant play him. My team was a little light on speed, so i couldnt pass up on his 60 sb. He is trade bait/insurence if one of my other OF gets hurt.
I think i added to the quality of my pitching by picking JJ Putz up in the 8th. He has a good ERA/WHIP+ Seattle should be in a lot of close games. He doesnt have any job competition either. In the 9th i added to my closer by picking Chad Cordero. He is still young+ he posted career best stats in the 2nd half of last year. I could really see him and Putz being the top 2 closers this year, not to toot my own horn..
I took my 2nd starting pither in the 10th by selecting Vazquez who i will continue to say has been unlucky for the past several seasons, and will put forth a cy young campaign this year. In rounds 11 and 12 I filled my MI by selecting Barfield/Rentaria. Both are good speed/power/avearage picks so i was happy i got them that late. It wasnt my plan to wait on MI this late, and i dont usually ignore Position Scarcity, but i had to roll the way the draft was going... In round 13 i reached for Jonothan Broxton because i thought Mikey would take him. He is going to help me in WHIP/ERA, even if he dosent close which i think he will by mid season at the latest.
In the 14th i filled my gaping MI hole by picking Ensberg. I know he had a bad average last year, but you need to look at his first half/2nd half splits, and then tell me he wasnt playing hurt. Round 15 Clemons... I have nothing to say... Autopick...
If Gil Meche gets his control under control no pun intended he will be well worth my 16th round investment. I think the Riyals could suprise a lot of people this year, and i think Meche will be a big reason for that. John Lieber isnt done either.. He is a big game pitcher and i see the Phillies being in a lot of them this year.
As i have in every draft this year i took Pudge. He's a fine value in the 18th. He should go 10/10 with a good avg on a good T's team. This is why you dont take Mauer in the 3rd. I am kind of rolling the dice on Kei Igawa in the 19th. He should get wins at the least. I sured up my MI with Durham in the 20th....
I took some of my sleeper pitchers in the 21/22. Manuel Corpas will be the CO closer at some point this year, and if Linecum makes the SF giants he will be this year's Verlander but better..
Jeff Francis should be an all star this year and i am willing to bet that with my 23rd pick, Delcarmen could be the closer for the Sox who's bullpen situation is totally up in the air at the moment. I finished off the draft with kiko calero=RP LIMA pick..
So sorry that was more of a rant than an organized article, I will be posting/Possibly podcasting more in the upcoming days... Stay tuned!
Just a quick analysis of my team......
I was drafting out of the #9 slot, which in my opinion is the worst pick you can possibly have in a 12-14 team league. I was really hoping that either Arod or Crawford would slip to me, but they didnt. Instead i was left with Beltran or Ortiz. I took Beltran because i still think he has Sb upside. Coming back around i would have been thrilled to get Sizemore, but i dint so i settled for Bay who i also think has Sb upside this year. So with my first two picks i felt that i had achieved a balence in the hitting categories.
With a late pick in the third round i was targeting either Furcal to put me over the hump in average and give me additional power and speed, but i was too tempted when Anduw jones was still there. I know his average is low, but i expect that to improve plus it is his "walk" year so he should have some added insparation to play. I actually expect this to be his career year seeing that he is at prime age.
Without having known i had added 3 OF with my 1st 3 picks, totally filling my OF...UHOH!!!
Coming back around i took Konerko for 1b to give me average and add to my strong power stats. In the 5th round, i may have made a mistake by selecting Johnny Damon. Being my 4th Of i knew i had to plug hiom into my Utility spot. I like Damon this year though, and think he should go 20/20/90/120/290. In the 6th round i made a homer pick by choosing Dice-K. I believe in this guy.... and he could potentially be the steal of the draft. People say that he will take a step back coming over from Japan, but the reality of the situation is that no batters have faced him, and that should only work to his benefit.
In round 7 i dont want to say i wasted a pick, but i took Juan Pierre knowing i cant play him. My team was a little light on speed, so i couldnt pass up on his 60 sb. He is trade bait/insurence if one of my other OF gets hurt.
I think i added to the quality of my pitching by picking JJ Putz up in the 8th. He has a good ERA/WHIP+ Seattle should be in a lot of close games. He doesnt have any job competition either. In the 9th i added to my closer by picking Chad Cordero. He is still young+ he posted career best stats in the 2nd half of last year. I could really see him and Putz being the top 2 closers this year, not to toot my own horn..
I took my 2nd starting pither in the 10th by selecting Vazquez who i will continue to say has been unlucky for the past several seasons, and will put forth a cy young campaign this year. In rounds 11 and 12 I filled my MI by selecting Barfield/Rentaria. Both are good speed/power/avearage picks so i was happy i got them that late. It wasnt my plan to wait on MI this late, and i dont usually ignore Position Scarcity, but i had to roll the way the draft was going... In round 13 i reached for Jonothan Broxton because i thought Mikey would take him. He is going to help me in WHIP/ERA, even if he dosent close which i think he will by mid season at the latest.
In the 14th i filled my gaping MI hole by picking Ensberg. I know he had a bad average last year, but you need to look at his first half/2nd half splits, and then tell me he wasnt playing hurt. Round 15 Clemons... I have nothing to say... Autopick...
If Gil Meche gets his control under control no pun intended he will be well worth my 16th round investment. I think the Riyals could suprise a lot of people this year, and i think Meche will be a big reason for that. John Lieber isnt done either.. He is a big game pitcher and i see the Phillies being in a lot of them this year.
As i have in every draft this year i took Pudge. He's a fine value in the 18th. He should go 10/10 with a good avg on a good T's team. This is why you dont take Mauer in the 3rd. I am kind of rolling the dice on Kei Igawa in the 19th. He should get wins at the least. I sured up my MI with Durham in the 20th....
I took some of my sleeper pitchers in the 21/22. Manuel Corpas will be the CO closer at some point this year, and if Linecum makes the SF giants he will be this year's Verlander but better..
Jeff Francis should be an all star this year and i am willing to bet that with my 23rd pick, Delcarmen could be the closer for the Sox who's bullpen situation is totally up in the air at the moment. I finished off the draft with kiko calero=RP LIMA pick..
So sorry that was more of a rant than an organized article, I will be posting/Possibly podcasting more in the upcoming days... Stay tuned!
Sunday, February 18, 2007
Attention FBE Writers!
You have been invited to join the first ever FBE Writer's League. Email me, and i will give you the league info..
BRING IT!
BRING IT!
Friday, February 16, 2007
Carlos Lee Dosent Excite You?
No this is not a homosexual reference towards Carlos Lee. However i will admit i LOVE Carlos Lee this year. I was looking through Mikey's top 25 today and when i saw Lee at #24, i decided that i have to enlighten you with my own thoughts.
First of all he is a 5 tool player to begin with. Last year with two teams he hit 37 HR with 102 runs 116 rbi a 300 average and 19 sb. If that is not 5 tool, i dont know what is. The obvious prediction this year, is that he will improve playing in Houston (Which i totally agree with). What you dont realize by just watching ESPN is that Lee's Power/Potential BA/Contact%/Batting Eye/ and speed have been increasing for some time now. He is also 30 this year, his "peak" should be justified by his rising skills. I think you can expect 40HR/100R/110RBI/300avg/15 steals this year. While is skills may warrent a first round pick, you can just as easily grab him in the 2nd. I passed over him in the 2nd for Holliday in the FM league draft. Im starting to question that........ Lee is a great second round pick, and i would almost feel more SAFE taking Carlos Lee over guys like Vlad/Hanley/Bay/Sizemore/Jeter.....All of which Mikey has above Lee on his list.
Im just giving you a different opinion!
I know i keep promising it, but Podcast#1 will be UNLEASHED very soon.
ajopiela@yahoo.com
First of all he is a 5 tool player to begin with. Last year with two teams he hit 37 HR with 102 runs 116 rbi a 300 average and 19 sb. If that is not 5 tool, i dont know what is. The obvious prediction this year, is that he will improve playing in Houston (Which i totally agree with). What you dont realize by just watching ESPN is that Lee's Power/Potential BA/Contact%/Batting Eye/ and speed have been increasing for some time now. He is also 30 this year, his "peak" should be justified by his rising skills. I think you can expect 40HR/100R/110RBI/300avg/15 steals this year. While is skills may warrent a first round pick, you can just as easily grab him in the 2nd. I passed over him in the 2nd for Holliday in the FM league draft. Im starting to question that........ Lee is a great second round pick, and i would almost feel more SAFE taking Carlos Lee over guys like Vlad/Hanley/Bay/Sizemore/Jeter.....All of which Mikey has above Lee on his list.
Im just giving you a different opinion!
I know i keep promising it, but Podcast#1 will be UNLEASHED very soon.
ajopiela@yahoo.com
Thursday, February 15, 2007
How did The Fantasy Man do???
I have already talked about my Fantasy Man league team. I have told you what i really think of my picks, i was honest, i did not cover anything up, (Though i think my team was pretty damn good!) Now it is time to do the same for The Fantasy Man. Mikey called out my Round 20 Manuel Corpas pick. I can see Corapas taking over as the Colorado closer very soon, so i think it is a good pick. Mikey refered to that pick as "stupid" So here it comes Mikey,.... GAME ON!!!!!!!
Round 1 Pick Alfonso Soriano
I am glad you did not take Reyes! Though Soriano is capable of repeating last years stats, i just dont see it. His average should fall, due to the fact that the park is smaller, and therefore some of the balls that dropped in for hits at Wrigley may not at RFK, and fielders should have an easier time playing the balls. If he bats leadoff, his RBI's will obviously fall. His HR and SB should be pretty much the same, though his runs should definetly increase. But what happens now that he has signed the big contract? Repeat of Beltran?
Round 2 Pick Mark Texiera
I am with you on this one. He hit 27 doubles in the first half, which explains why his homerun totals were so low+ plus his second half gain of Fly ball%. He finished last year on a tear, so he still has it. You could very well be getting the Texiera this year that you paid for last year.
Round 3 Pick Miguel Tejada
I dont see where you were going with this one. He wasnt even the best shortstop available (i like Furcal more). There is also a thing called a CI, which would have given you a lethal power force if you slotted morneau here. I also like My Andruw Jones pick over Tejada here. I will give you the .320 and 25+HR, but this just was not the right pick in my book.
Round 4 Pick Robinson Cano
Well i wanted to take him, so great pick lol...... He will give you around a 330 average with around 20 hr at a really scare position. He will also score a lot of runs w/ the NYY. Great pick. I almost like him more than Tejada.
Round 5 Pick Scott Kazmir
Its too bad you missed out on getting a solid vetran anchor to your staff. However, i think that this is an excellent pick if Kazmir does what he should. He was better last year after his injury, you really should be looking at 15 wins, 3 era, 1.2 whip, and 190 K's. Great keeper option also.
Round 6 Pick Trevor Hoffman
Good Control and Command of his pitches is what is making up for his deteriorating K/9 ratio. For the moment he is good for another 35+ saves. Watch out for injuries though..... He is a solid pick here, but i have no idea why you wouldnt take Putz though.
Round 7 Pick Jered Weaver
150+ inning spike last year, makes him a good canidate for burnout. His Era is heading up to around 3.8. He is not a 2.4 pitcher. He has elite skills, but they went down in the second half. SOPHMORE SLUMP!
Round 8 Pick Cole Hamels
Maybe the best SP out there in terms of imediat impact and upside at this point. I like him a lot more than Weaver, you are lucky he wasnt gobbled up at this point. K Machine with good ratios/skills. He will be closer to J. Santana than Weaver this year.
Round 9 Pick Dan Uggla
I wont blame you on taking Uggla here, MDC screwed me over a few times also. However, this is a terrible pick. Too many of his balls fell in for hits that should not have, and his ground ball% took a huge leap in the second half. He dosent have speed, so you could be looking at a 265 average along with pretty medicore stats the rest of the way. This is a sophmore slump he will not get out of, last year was a fluke.
Round 10 Pick Francisco Cordero
Great Pick. He is better than Hoffman. He should save 40 games this year and have pretty good supporting stats. Turnbow is still out there though.
Round 11 Pick Justin Verlander
Late season fatige=not good. He is not the player we saw in the first half. But he certainly is not the second hald either. He is a risk. Your pitching staff is riding on Verlander and Weaver evading the sophmore slump and burnout. I wouldnt put too much faith into these guys.
Round 12 Pick Chris Duffy
You neeed steals, so good pick. He wont come out and steal 50+ though. I think you can expect 30. I like him on that up and coming pirates team also.
Round 13 Pick Jeff Franceor
He is unpredictable. He could give you a .290 avg w/ 30+ hr or he could give you about 20 hr with a .265 average. I try to stay away from guys like this. I kind of like Garciapara or Ibanez here. They should give you around the same average, but they are safer and have a higher average.
Round 14 Pick Edwin Encarnocion
He's still growing. He wont hurt you. He should hit around 20 hr and .300
Round 15 Pick Carlos Quentin
The power is on the way, dont worry! It might get there before the .BA though. I actually like him more than the other Of options you had.
Round 16 Pick Chin-Ming Wang
Adds some stability to your risky staff. He will get wins ERA Whip, but not a lot of K's. Though i agree with you in drafting Weaver/Verlander before Wang, i think Wang could have a better season.
Round 17 Pick Hank Blaylock
Though he is young, his power skills have been deteriorating for a while. His gb% has been going up= not a good combination. He should rebound a little from last year, but he is not the player he was in 03/04.
Round 18 Pick Chuck James
My personal opinion is that he is not the prospect people say he is.
Round 19 pick Anibal Sanchez
Apparently hurt himself playing in a S.A. league. He really does not have the K/9 rate (5.8) or the control to be sucessful. The No-hitter made him look good. You are going to be dissapointed with both him and James thsi year.
Round 20 Pick Melvin Mora
Expect what you got last year.
Round 21 Pick Ryan Shealy
Has a Bad eye, and strikes out a lot. But the power is here. HE should hit around 25 while batting 270. In terms of draft position Shealy is kind of like the Chris Shelton/Conor Jackson of this years draft.
Round 22 Pick Johnny Gomes
Was hurt which explains his lackluster stats. However his flyball% rose which indicates more power is coming back. His aveagre is going to stay bad though. Good upside pick here.
Round 23 Pick Moisies Alou
He still has the power and .300 average, will he be on the field though?
Round 24 Pick Ronnie Paulino
Solid C option here i guess.
Round 25 Pick Felix Pie
I wont talk crap about players i dont know about............
Round 26 Pick Carl Pavano
Was impoving before 2005 injury. The fact that he was injured is why you got him here. You may have cought lighting in a bottle here.......
Round 27 Pick Glen Perkins
solid prospect, thats it for now. G&S?
Round 28 Pick Nelson Cruz
Will start as a platoon player. Intriguing Power and speed....... The average is not good though.
Round 29 Pick Gil Meche
I would have taken him if i knew he was here. Lenny Melnick said it all. Carpenter? Probably not....But i applaud Mikey for taking the risk.
Round 30 Pick Clay Hennsley
Value Lies w. Ground Balls. Bad Control. Upside? Round 30....Dosent matter....
Round 1 Pick Alfonso Soriano
I am glad you did not take Reyes! Though Soriano is capable of repeating last years stats, i just dont see it. His average should fall, due to the fact that the park is smaller, and therefore some of the balls that dropped in for hits at Wrigley may not at RFK, and fielders should have an easier time playing the balls. If he bats leadoff, his RBI's will obviously fall. His HR and SB should be pretty much the same, though his runs should definetly increase. But what happens now that he has signed the big contract? Repeat of Beltran?
Round 2 Pick Mark Texiera
I am with you on this one. He hit 27 doubles in the first half, which explains why his homerun totals were so low+ plus his second half gain of Fly ball%. He finished last year on a tear, so he still has it. You could very well be getting the Texiera this year that you paid for last year.
Round 3 Pick Miguel Tejada
I dont see where you were going with this one. He wasnt even the best shortstop available (i like Furcal more). There is also a thing called a CI, which would have given you a lethal power force if you slotted morneau here. I also like My Andruw Jones pick over Tejada here. I will give you the .320 and 25+HR, but this just was not the right pick in my book.
Round 4 Pick Robinson Cano
Well i wanted to take him, so great pick lol...... He will give you around a 330 average with around 20 hr at a really scare position. He will also score a lot of runs w/ the NYY. Great pick. I almost like him more than Tejada.
Round 5 Pick Scott Kazmir
Its too bad you missed out on getting a solid vetran anchor to your staff. However, i think that this is an excellent pick if Kazmir does what he should. He was better last year after his injury, you really should be looking at 15 wins, 3 era, 1.2 whip, and 190 K's. Great keeper option also.
Round 6 Pick Trevor Hoffman
Good Control and Command of his pitches is what is making up for his deteriorating K/9 ratio. For the moment he is good for another 35+ saves. Watch out for injuries though..... He is a solid pick here, but i have no idea why you wouldnt take Putz though.
Round 7 Pick Jered Weaver
150+ inning spike last year, makes him a good canidate for burnout. His Era is heading up to around 3.8. He is not a 2.4 pitcher. He has elite skills, but they went down in the second half. SOPHMORE SLUMP!
Round 8 Pick Cole Hamels
Maybe the best SP out there in terms of imediat impact and upside at this point. I like him a lot more than Weaver, you are lucky he wasnt gobbled up at this point. K Machine with good ratios/skills. He will be closer to J. Santana than Weaver this year.
Round 9 Pick Dan Uggla
I wont blame you on taking Uggla here, MDC screwed me over a few times also. However, this is a terrible pick. Too many of his balls fell in for hits that should not have, and his ground ball% took a huge leap in the second half. He dosent have speed, so you could be looking at a 265 average along with pretty medicore stats the rest of the way. This is a sophmore slump he will not get out of, last year was a fluke.
Round 10 Pick Francisco Cordero
Great Pick. He is better than Hoffman. He should save 40 games this year and have pretty good supporting stats. Turnbow is still out there though.
Round 11 Pick Justin Verlander
Late season fatige=not good. He is not the player we saw in the first half. But he certainly is not the second hald either. He is a risk. Your pitching staff is riding on Verlander and Weaver evading the sophmore slump and burnout. I wouldnt put too much faith into these guys.
Round 12 Pick Chris Duffy
You neeed steals, so good pick. He wont come out and steal 50+ though. I think you can expect 30. I like him on that up and coming pirates team also.
Round 13 Pick Jeff Franceor
He is unpredictable. He could give you a .290 avg w/ 30+ hr or he could give you about 20 hr with a .265 average. I try to stay away from guys like this. I kind of like Garciapara or Ibanez here. They should give you around the same average, but they are safer and have a higher average.
Round 14 Pick Edwin Encarnocion
He's still growing. He wont hurt you. He should hit around 20 hr and .300
Round 15 Pick Carlos Quentin
The power is on the way, dont worry! It might get there before the .BA though. I actually like him more than the other Of options you had.
Round 16 Pick Chin-Ming Wang
Adds some stability to your risky staff. He will get wins ERA Whip, but not a lot of K's. Though i agree with you in drafting Weaver/Verlander before Wang, i think Wang could have a better season.
Round 17 Pick Hank Blaylock
Though he is young, his power skills have been deteriorating for a while. His gb% has been going up= not a good combination. He should rebound a little from last year, but he is not the player he was in 03/04.
Round 18 Pick Chuck James
My personal opinion is that he is not the prospect people say he is.
Round 19 pick Anibal Sanchez
Apparently hurt himself playing in a S.A. league. He really does not have the K/9 rate (5.8) or the control to be sucessful. The No-hitter made him look good. You are going to be dissapointed with both him and James thsi year.
Round 20 Pick Melvin Mora
Expect what you got last year.
Round 21 Pick Ryan Shealy
Has a Bad eye, and strikes out a lot. But the power is here. HE should hit around 25 while batting 270. In terms of draft position Shealy is kind of like the Chris Shelton/Conor Jackson of this years draft.
Round 22 Pick Johnny Gomes
Was hurt which explains his lackluster stats. However his flyball% rose which indicates more power is coming back. His aveagre is going to stay bad though. Good upside pick here.
Round 23 Pick Moisies Alou
He still has the power and .300 average, will he be on the field though?
Round 24 Pick Ronnie Paulino
Solid C option here i guess.
Round 25 Pick Felix Pie
I wont talk crap about players i dont know about............
Round 26 Pick Carl Pavano
Was impoving before 2005 injury. The fact that he was injured is why you got him here. You may have cought lighting in a bottle here.......
Round 27 Pick Glen Perkins
solid prospect, thats it for now. G&S?
Round 28 Pick Nelson Cruz
Will start as a platoon player. Intriguing Power and speed....... The average is not good though.
Round 29 Pick Gil Meche
I would have taken him if i knew he was here. Lenny Melnick said it all. Carpenter? Probably not....But i applaud Mikey for taking the risk.
Round 30 Pick Clay Hennsley
Value Lies w. Ground Balls. Bad Control. Upside? Round 30....Dosent matter....
Sunday, February 11, 2007
The Superior Mendoza Swingers
Last night I was proud to take part in the draft for the first ever Fantasy Man money league. I drew the 4th pick. Just a note before i go into it.... I was planning on podcasting this analysis but i just found out that my microphone does not work. I will buy a new one, so you can probably expect to see this broadcasted via blogmatrix later this week. It should be easier to follow, but this post should be pretty imformative, and it will provide a nice outline for me when i do my first ever podcast!
Round 1 Pick Jose Reyes
The Draft started out just as i expected it to, Pujols went #1. Then something happened that i was not ready for, RangerLexi took Santana at #2. I am not saying this is a bad pick, but i fully expected either Reyes, Soraino, and Howard to be picked here. I then knew that because Mikey loves Soriano so much, that i was going to have to choose between Reyes and Howard at #4. Elite Power or Elite Speed? I ended up penciling Reyes in at my SS. Was it the right move? I think so.... I think that though they are both young Reyes has FAR more potential than Howard. The difference is that i can see Reyes possibly stealing 80 bases this year, i simply cannot see Howard hitting 60 Hr. Another deciding factor in my decison was Howards absurdly low contact %. It was 69% when he swung. He has had this stat his whole career and has still managed to hit around 300, but this percentage is only 3 points higher than the man himself, Adam Dunn.
Hopefully Reyes legs hold up, since he tries to steal about 45% of the time he gets on base.
Round 2 Pick Matt Holiday
Coming back around i knew i wanted to get a good power guy who has upside and a decent average. Matt Holiday totally fit the criteria. At the very least he should improve on last year's #s. In my mind he is of 1st round value, i could not believe i got him towards the end of the 2nd round!
Round 3 Pick Andruw Jones
Though i am putting 35+ Hr in the bank from Holliday i wanted additional power here. Andruw Jones is at the prime of his career and is an absolute lock for 40+ HR this year. I wont sit here and ramble off stats (Though i may on the podcast) but Jones has constantly been an underacheiver in the BA department. He owns the skills and stats to hit 290, but he has been a chronic 265 hitter. This is the year that he puts everything together. And hey, if it isnt Holliday makes up for his low average and i have 40 more HR at the least.
Round 4 Pick Chone Figgins
The Botched Pick!!!!!!!!!!!!! I was going to take Cano, but i go down to look at my book for what seems like 10 seconds, i look back up and i have Chone Figgins at my 3b slot. I lost around 40 pts of average here as well as some power, but on the bright side i gained about 40 sb. So with Reyes and Figgins i should be a force to be reckoned with in the SB department, but honsestly this is not what i was planning at all. You need to be able to recoever from a mistake like this though, i feel i did and had a sucessful rest of the draft. Lol Mikey you lucky S.O.B. i wanted Cano!!!
Round 5 Pick Jim Thome
Coming back around i knew i absolutley had to get power because i ended up taking Figgins. Though it was not my intention i had more projected SB than HR at this point in the draft. So i sort of panicked and took Thome. He is old, he isnt sexy, but he is still ticking and should get me 40 HR and hit about 285.
Round 6 Pick Adam Laroche
Ok, so this was kind of the turn around pick of my draft in my mind. I did not realize that Thome did not qualify at 1b (Not that i wouldnt have taken him anyway) but now it was the 6th round and i did not have a 1b. So im looking down the list and i see Adam Laroche, YES! Here is a guy in an ideal situation. He is around the peak of his career, hitting in a Lhers ballpark on an up and coming pirates team. Mikey will disagree with me here... He thinks Laroche was a reach in the 6th round. Well Mikey i will make a bet with you that Laroche will have better numbers then Tex at the end of the year. What do you say to that? Huhhhh? Im expecting a 290 avg and 35-40 Hr with about 100 rbi/runs.
Round 7 Pick Delmon Young
I think he can be 20/20 this year! Maybe more.... His value definetly goes up seeing this is a keeper league, but i didnt pick him for the future, i picked him for NOW. I have to admit i kind of wanted Baldelli or Rios here though........
Round 8 Pick Tori Hunter
Batting average should hurt me a little bit... Im thinking 275 with optimism, but hey he could totally bust out. He should hit around 25 Hr and steal around 20 bases also. I cant argue getting a potential 30/20 guy in the 8th round. Hey, if he gets his average up, and exceeds expectations a little bit, and continues to play CF the way he does, we could very well be looking at the 2007 Al MVP.
Round 9 Pick Edgar Rentaria
I was trying to make up some BA at my MI spot here.... I like his consistancy though... He will help my avg by batting around 290, and will get 10 hr/15 sb at the absolute least.
Round 10 Pick Jeff Kent
Wow! Is Jeff Kent really my 2b? Exactly why i wanted Cano... Hes 39, absolutley no value in a keeper league. He hurt his wrist/oblique which is cause for concern, but he hit 315 in the second half. I kind of like the LAD this year. My modest projection is 295 15 HR +80/80 r/rbi... Thats not so bad after all, that actually helps my average.
Round 11 Pick Javier Vazquez
My 1st Pitcher. If you couldnt tell by now im a LIMA drafter. This is going to sound stupid as hell, but if i draft a SP i want to think that he may contend for the Cy Yound. I think Vazquez can do just that. His ERA was unlucky last year, but he had a 1.3 whip w/ good K totals. If he gets lucky he is capable of posting a 3.00 era w/ 18 wins, a 1.2 whip and 200 K's. This totally justifies my point of waiting on pitching because i could potentially get a top 5 picter in the 11th round.
Round 12 Pick Jose Valverde
Probably a little early for him but most of the closer were gone so i wanted to make sure that i got at least one. He had control problems in the first half of last year, which cost him his job, but he regained his skills in the second half. He is a good K pitcher who should have a low era whip, + he has really no job competition heading into this year. The Dback should be in a lot of close games so he should get some save opps
Round 13 pick AJ Burnett
Will he ever stay healthy? I dont know! He showed flashes of brialliance last year though. At age 30 its now or never. Im banking that he stays healthy, and therefore predict he can be the Jay ace that they paid for, posting 15 wins w/ a 3.5 ERA a 1.2 WHip and 200 K's
Round 14 Pick Johnathan Broxton
My heart stopped when Stu A.K.A Can o Corn took Joel Zumaya. I remembered talking to Mikey before the draft, he knows my strategy. He was telling me that he was going to tell the league to pick my MR guys. Though i love Zumaya i love Broxton more. I held my breath that he was going to reach me. In 87 In last year he had a 2.27 ERa and a 1.18 whip w/ 113 K's. WOW, if his even pitches a few more innings he should approach SP amount of K's. However the bigger picture is that he could be the closer. Saito is 37. Broxton in my mind is just 1 or 2 Saito blown saves away from stepping into the job. If he does he will be by far the most valuable picther in my book. I know round 14 was a reach, but I HAD TO HAVE HIM.
Round 15 Pick Scott Shields
Pretty much the premier Middle Relief guy out there. Is skills are more than closer worthy. Im happy to have his low ERA/WHIP, but what if he goes to a team that needs a closer? How about the Redsox?
Round 16 Pick Kelvim Escobar
My Third and Final SP. If he is healthy i think he is capable of posting 18 win 3.2 ERA/1.2 whip and 170 K. Hes been consistant since he has been in Anaheim. Its just a matter of staying healthy...
Round 17 Pick Ivan Rodriguez
Bottom Line: I needed a Catcher. This is why i would not draft Mauer in the third round,..because i can get I-rod in the 17th. He is clearly on the decline, but he should be a 10/10 player this year, and should bat 300. Basically what you are losing between Mauer and Irod (this year) is 6-8 HR and 25 points max BA. Think about that, and then think about if its worth leaving a guy like A. Jones/Justin Morneau and their 40+ Hr on the table for position scarcity.....
Round 18 Pick Josh Willingham
I know he does not qualify at C, but he hit 27 HR last year. He should hit 30 this year, + his skills/stats grew in the 2nd half of last year. Dont worry, ill find a place to put him.....
Round 19 Pick Kenny Lofton
I honestly do not know if he will start this year. But he should be good for 20+ sb. Clearly old/deteriorating.....
Round 20 Pick Taylor Tankersly
Who else can be the Fl closer? They traded Jo Borowski, so they obviously have some faith in Tankersly... He would make a good closer becuase of his high K rate, and the fact that though he is a lefty both Rh/lhers hit equally off him. Did i just steal an elite skill closer in round 20? Maybe...
Round 21 Pick Manuel Coraps
Emerged as Co's primary set up man last year. He has great control of his pictes, and a decent K rate. He posted a 2.22 ERA and a 1.16 whip last year in 77 innings. Once again he is one of those guys that is just a few blown saves or an injury away from being an elite closer.
Round 22 Pick Mike Jacobs
I needed a CI. He will hit around 20 Hr and should have a better BA this year. One of those picks that im not thrilled about, but everyone was hyping him up last year, he should improve.
Round 23 Pick Scott Linebrik
Total LIMA pick. I dont expect him to take over the SD closer role unless Hoffman gets hurt, but hes just one of those guys that is going to give you a consistantly low ERA/WHIP, +some K's, hopefully some wins
Round 24 Pick Kiko Calero
Same deal as Linerbrik. Good ERA WHIP. Lefty specialist. Will both get you holds if your league has that.
Round 25 Pick Omar Vizquel
Should provide BA and steals, had a suprising year last year. I expect him to retire on top, not because SF does not want him because he cant play anymore. He should not fall back to much from last year.
Round 26 Pick Raphael Soriano
Great LIMA pick. Should be starter this year. Good K ratio.... I think he could contend for the closers spot also.
Round 27 Pick Dustin Pedroia
Home Town Pick! Will be the socks 2b this year. Got unlucky in his limited time in the majors last year. He had a 94% contact percentage as well as a good line drive % He IS a 300 hitter, and will be this year. He dosent have much power speed. (He could go 10/10 i guess) More than that though i like his run total potential hitting the in the socks lineup.
Round 28 pick Jeremy Accardo
Another Yound Lima pick. Again he could be the closer if Ryan gets hurt. I will take his ERA/WHIP though.
Round 29 pick Manny Delcarmen
Improved second half skills. The sox will always use their pen. A possible dark horse, seeing that pinero is the closer as of now..... + A+ lima grade in the 2007 Baseball Forecaster, lol
Round 30 pick Craig Biggio
I thought the draft was over, so i left....skills are clearly going down the shi**** but i have always admired Biggio as a person and a player. Maybe i will keep him on my bench just for that, but i dont know we will have to see what FA's are available and how the rest of my team looks when the first picth of the 2007 baseball season is thrown on April 1st!!!!!!!!!!
If you have any questions about anything email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com The podcast will get started this week i promise, iv got vacation in a week lol i cant wait!
Round 1 Pick Jose Reyes
The Draft started out just as i expected it to, Pujols went #1. Then something happened that i was not ready for, RangerLexi took Santana at #2. I am not saying this is a bad pick, but i fully expected either Reyes, Soraino, and Howard to be picked here. I then knew that because Mikey loves Soriano so much, that i was going to have to choose between Reyes and Howard at #4. Elite Power or Elite Speed? I ended up penciling Reyes in at my SS. Was it the right move? I think so.... I think that though they are both young Reyes has FAR more potential than Howard. The difference is that i can see Reyes possibly stealing 80 bases this year, i simply cannot see Howard hitting 60 Hr. Another deciding factor in my decison was Howards absurdly low contact %. It was 69% when he swung. He has had this stat his whole career and has still managed to hit around 300, but this percentage is only 3 points higher than the man himself, Adam Dunn.
Hopefully Reyes legs hold up, since he tries to steal about 45% of the time he gets on base.
Round 2 Pick Matt Holiday
Coming back around i knew i wanted to get a good power guy who has upside and a decent average. Matt Holiday totally fit the criteria. At the very least he should improve on last year's #s. In my mind he is of 1st round value, i could not believe i got him towards the end of the 2nd round!
Round 3 Pick Andruw Jones
Though i am putting 35+ Hr in the bank from Holliday i wanted additional power here. Andruw Jones is at the prime of his career and is an absolute lock for 40+ HR this year. I wont sit here and ramble off stats (Though i may on the podcast) but Jones has constantly been an underacheiver in the BA department. He owns the skills and stats to hit 290, but he has been a chronic 265 hitter. This is the year that he puts everything together. And hey, if it isnt Holliday makes up for his low average and i have 40 more HR at the least.
Round 4 Pick Chone Figgins
The Botched Pick!!!!!!!!!!!!! I was going to take Cano, but i go down to look at my book for what seems like 10 seconds, i look back up and i have Chone Figgins at my 3b slot. I lost around 40 pts of average here as well as some power, but on the bright side i gained about 40 sb. So with Reyes and Figgins i should be a force to be reckoned with in the SB department, but honsestly this is not what i was planning at all. You need to be able to recoever from a mistake like this though, i feel i did and had a sucessful rest of the draft. Lol Mikey you lucky S.O.B. i wanted Cano!!!
Round 5 Pick Jim Thome
Coming back around i knew i absolutley had to get power because i ended up taking Figgins. Though it was not my intention i had more projected SB than HR at this point in the draft. So i sort of panicked and took Thome. He is old, he isnt sexy, but he is still ticking and should get me 40 HR and hit about 285.
Round 6 Pick Adam Laroche
Ok, so this was kind of the turn around pick of my draft in my mind. I did not realize that Thome did not qualify at 1b (Not that i wouldnt have taken him anyway) but now it was the 6th round and i did not have a 1b. So im looking down the list and i see Adam Laroche, YES! Here is a guy in an ideal situation. He is around the peak of his career, hitting in a Lhers ballpark on an up and coming pirates team. Mikey will disagree with me here... He thinks Laroche was a reach in the 6th round. Well Mikey i will make a bet with you that Laroche will have better numbers then Tex at the end of the year. What do you say to that? Huhhhh? Im expecting a 290 avg and 35-40 Hr with about 100 rbi/runs.
Round 7 Pick Delmon Young
I think he can be 20/20 this year! Maybe more.... His value definetly goes up seeing this is a keeper league, but i didnt pick him for the future, i picked him for NOW. I have to admit i kind of wanted Baldelli or Rios here though........
Round 8 Pick Tori Hunter
Batting average should hurt me a little bit... Im thinking 275 with optimism, but hey he could totally bust out. He should hit around 25 Hr and steal around 20 bases also. I cant argue getting a potential 30/20 guy in the 8th round. Hey, if he gets his average up, and exceeds expectations a little bit, and continues to play CF the way he does, we could very well be looking at the 2007 Al MVP.
Round 9 Pick Edgar Rentaria
I was trying to make up some BA at my MI spot here.... I like his consistancy though... He will help my avg by batting around 290, and will get 10 hr/15 sb at the absolute least.
Round 10 Pick Jeff Kent
Wow! Is Jeff Kent really my 2b? Exactly why i wanted Cano... Hes 39, absolutley no value in a keeper league. He hurt his wrist/oblique which is cause for concern, but he hit 315 in the second half. I kind of like the LAD this year. My modest projection is 295 15 HR +80/80 r/rbi... Thats not so bad after all, that actually helps my average.
Round 11 Pick Javier Vazquez
My 1st Pitcher. If you couldnt tell by now im a LIMA drafter. This is going to sound stupid as hell, but if i draft a SP i want to think that he may contend for the Cy Yound. I think Vazquez can do just that. His ERA was unlucky last year, but he had a 1.3 whip w/ good K totals. If he gets lucky he is capable of posting a 3.00 era w/ 18 wins, a 1.2 whip and 200 K's. This totally justifies my point of waiting on pitching because i could potentially get a top 5 picter in the 11th round.
Round 12 Pick Jose Valverde
Probably a little early for him but most of the closer were gone so i wanted to make sure that i got at least one. He had control problems in the first half of last year, which cost him his job, but he regained his skills in the second half. He is a good K pitcher who should have a low era whip, + he has really no job competition heading into this year. The Dback should be in a lot of close games so he should get some save opps
Round 13 pick AJ Burnett
Will he ever stay healthy? I dont know! He showed flashes of brialliance last year though. At age 30 its now or never. Im banking that he stays healthy, and therefore predict he can be the Jay ace that they paid for, posting 15 wins w/ a 3.5 ERA a 1.2 WHip and 200 K's
Round 14 Pick Johnathan Broxton
My heart stopped when Stu A.K.A Can o Corn took Joel Zumaya. I remembered talking to Mikey before the draft, he knows my strategy. He was telling me that he was going to tell the league to pick my MR guys. Though i love Zumaya i love Broxton more. I held my breath that he was going to reach me. In 87 In last year he had a 2.27 ERa and a 1.18 whip w/ 113 K's. WOW, if his even pitches a few more innings he should approach SP amount of K's. However the bigger picture is that he could be the closer. Saito is 37. Broxton in my mind is just 1 or 2 Saito blown saves away from stepping into the job. If he does he will be by far the most valuable picther in my book. I know round 14 was a reach, but I HAD TO HAVE HIM.
Round 15 Pick Scott Shields
Pretty much the premier Middle Relief guy out there. Is skills are more than closer worthy. Im happy to have his low ERA/WHIP, but what if he goes to a team that needs a closer? How about the Redsox?
Round 16 Pick Kelvim Escobar
My Third and Final SP. If he is healthy i think he is capable of posting 18 win 3.2 ERA/1.2 whip and 170 K. Hes been consistant since he has been in Anaheim. Its just a matter of staying healthy...
Round 17 Pick Ivan Rodriguez
Bottom Line: I needed a Catcher. This is why i would not draft Mauer in the third round,..because i can get I-rod in the 17th. He is clearly on the decline, but he should be a 10/10 player this year, and should bat 300. Basically what you are losing between Mauer and Irod (this year) is 6-8 HR and 25 points max BA. Think about that, and then think about if its worth leaving a guy like A. Jones/Justin Morneau and their 40+ Hr on the table for position scarcity.....
Round 18 Pick Josh Willingham
I know he does not qualify at C, but he hit 27 HR last year. He should hit 30 this year, + his skills/stats grew in the 2nd half of last year. Dont worry, ill find a place to put him.....
Round 19 Pick Kenny Lofton
I honestly do not know if he will start this year. But he should be good for 20+ sb. Clearly old/deteriorating.....
Round 20 Pick Taylor Tankersly
Who else can be the Fl closer? They traded Jo Borowski, so they obviously have some faith in Tankersly... He would make a good closer becuase of his high K rate, and the fact that though he is a lefty both Rh/lhers hit equally off him. Did i just steal an elite skill closer in round 20? Maybe...
Round 21 Pick Manuel Coraps
Emerged as Co's primary set up man last year. He has great control of his pictes, and a decent K rate. He posted a 2.22 ERA and a 1.16 whip last year in 77 innings. Once again he is one of those guys that is just a few blown saves or an injury away from being an elite closer.
Round 22 Pick Mike Jacobs
I needed a CI. He will hit around 20 Hr and should have a better BA this year. One of those picks that im not thrilled about, but everyone was hyping him up last year, he should improve.
Round 23 Pick Scott Linebrik
Total LIMA pick. I dont expect him to take over the SD closer role unless Hoffman gets hurt, but hes just one of those guys that is going to give you a consistantly low ERA/WHIP, +some K's, hopefully some wins
Round 24 Pick Kiko Calero
Same deal as Linerbrik. Good ERA WHIP. Lefty specialist. Will both get you holds if your league has that.
Round 25 Pick Omar Vizquel
Should provide BA and steals, had a suprising year last year. I expect him to retire on top, not because SF does not want him because he cant play anymore. He should not fall back to much from last year.
Round 26 Pick Raphael Soriano
Great LIMA pick. Should be starter this year. Good K ratio.... I think he could contend for the closers spot also.
Round 27 Pick Dustin Pedroia
Home Town Pick! Will be the socks 2b this year. Got unlucky in his limited time in the majors last year. He had a 94% contact percentage as well as a good line drive % He IS a 300 hitter, and will be this year. He dosent have much power speed. (He could go 10/10 i guess) More than that though i like his run total potential hitting the in the socks lineup.
Round 28 pick Jeremy Accardo
Another Yound Lima pick. Again he could be the closer if Ryan gets hurt. I will take his ERA/WHIP though.
Round 29 pick Manny Delcarmen
Improved second half skills. The sox will always use their pen. A possible dark horse, seeing that pinero is the closer as of now..... + A+ lima grade in the 2007 Baseball Forecaster, lol
Round 30 pick Craig Biggio
I thought the draft was over, so i left....skills are clearly going down the shi**** but i have always admired Biggio as a person and a player. Maybe i will keep him on my bench just for that, but i dont know we will have to see what FA's are available and how the rest of my team looks when the first picth of the 2007 baseball season is thrown on April 1st!!!!!!!!!!
If you have any questions about anything email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com The podcast will get started this week i promise, iv got vacation in a week lol i cant wait!
Thursday, February 8, 2007
A Helpful Tip+ update on audio
I hope to have my first audio blog up this weekend (barring any unexpected technical difficulty). I should be broadcasting alongside my partenr Dan. We will be rattling of our positional rankings at a pretty quick pace. Our first podcast will probably be each of our top 25. The day after, we can run through most of the infield positions, as well as answer your questions (which you can email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com).
I feel that the easiest way to know you will be builiding a sucessful and competitive team is to project out stats, and then total those stats.
To Dominate a HITTING category you would want
Around 300 HR
Around 200 SB
around a 285 avg
The RBI and Runs are not that important because they come with power and speed, SB translates into elite runs, and HR translate into elite RBI
Sorry that was so quick brief, hopefully the podcast will make it up to you..................
Happy Drafting
I feel that the easiest way to know you will be builiding a sucessful and competitive team is to project out stats, and then total those stats.
To Dominate a HITTING category you would want
Around 300 HR
Around 200 SB
around a 285 avg
The RBI and Runs are not that important because they come with power and speed, SB translates into elite runs, and HR translate into elite RBI
Sorry that was so quick brief, hopefully the podcast will make it up to you..................
Happy Drafting
Saturday, February 3, 2007
Just a Quick update
Sorry i have been inactive for the past week or so. I have been doing my own draft prep that i cannot wait to share with you guys a little later
I just need to talk about a few changes that this blog may be going through.... I think my friend dan will replace mikey as my cowriter of this blog, he cant keep up with it and i can't blame him he has a whole website to manage.
I may also create a podcast that will be broadcasted through this blog hopefully. That could be up as early as tomorrow. I'll hopefully have a partner on that also.
I would also like to remind you to join the Fantasy man leagues. We have a $50 keeper league that needs one more manager, draft order should be up soon....How about you?......
Email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com if you have any questions
I just need to talk about a few changes that this blog may be going through.... I think my friend dan will replace mikey as my cowriter of this blog, he cant keep up with it and i can't blame him he has a whole website to manage.
I may also create a podcast that will be broadcasted through this blog hopefully. That could be up as early as tomorrow. I'll hopefully have a partner on that also.
I would also like to remind you to join the Fantasy man leagues. We have a $50 keeper league that needs one more manager, draft order should be up soon....How about you?......
Email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com if you have any questions
Monday, January 22, 2007
Can A Case Be Made?
Today as i was sifting through the fantasybaseballexpress message board, i saw that "pirates" asked if a case could be made for any player other than Albert Pujols to be 2007's #1 draft pick.
If somebody put a gun to my head at this instant and asked me who i would take first overall, I would stutter out as if it were a natural reflex, "Albert Pujols." However if this same guy came back in April, when i would have had a chance to think it through i might have a different answer.
The one guy that i can see picking above Pujols is Jose Reyes. If Reyes exceeds expectations this year he could bat .330 with 110 runs, 90 rbi,25 hr, and 20-80 sb. Thats a 5 category player. The difference between him and Pujols is that Pujols will never give you Sb's, though he will probably hit 30 more HR, with 45 more RBI. I personally see speed as more valuable than power, and for that reason would consider picking Reyes above Pujols.
Mikey has admitted to considering picking Soriano 1st overall. Let me tell you why he is wrong...... I see Soriano this year as a 3 category player. He is around a 280 hitter, but playing in a smaller park i see that less of his balls will fall for hits, lowering his Ba. I could see Soriano hitting .270 this year. In addition to his BA, Soriano's RBI may go down if he does indeed bat leadoff. Thid leaves Soriano with Hr,SB, and Runs. I see Soriano scoring more runs this year in a better lineup, but i see his HR and SB slightly deteriorating now that he has finally signed the big contract. In the end you could potentially be left with; 35 HR, 35 Sb, .265-270 Avg,85 Rbi, and 100+ r. You should not pay for his 40/40 potential seeing as you can pick sleeper power/speed picks in the end of the draft. Instead pick Reyes or Pujols, and build around them.
"Pirates" also joked that Mauer could be the #1 pick, but seriously asked where i would rate him. I would rate Mauer at the Top of the Catcher position which is by far the most scarce in fantasy, and as a result would have no problem picking him in the third round of a 12 team mixed league. He is a real 320-340 hitter. He is a great contact hitter, and has a great eye. He hit 36 doubles last year, and with a rising fly ball percentage he should turn a few of those into HRs. I think you can expect 20 HR, a 330 avg 90 runs, 8 sb, and 90 rbi from Mauer this year. I have him above Mcann becuase he is a better contact/patient hitter. In addition to this Mcann's sudden power came from an elevated fly ball% and this could just as easily turn into more pop outs. Mauer just seems like a more proven/safe player to me this year. Mauer will not win any categories for you but he can help you in everything (especially average)...From a Catcher,ill take it!
That is all i have for today, i would like to remind you to keep sending me questions at ajopiela@yahoo.com or through the fbe message board, and dont forget to sign up for the Fantasy Man Leagues. As of Now im in a $50 draft scheduled for this saturday. I would love the company/competition of playing against some of the people who read my blog. Who knows maybe you know more about fantasy baseball than i do, well get in the league then, and we will find out. Thats why i am in it, is to see how my humble views measure up against guys like Mikey who are in the bussiness. By proving yourself, you gain respect, among the fantasy basbeall community, and thats how you get to be an expert by putting your name/skills out there... (Not that i know anything about that(:
If somebody put a gun to my head at this instant and asked me who i would take first overall, I would stutter out as if it were a natural reflex, "Albert Pujols." However if this same guy came back in April, when i would have had a chance to think it through i might have a different answer.
The one guy that i can see picking above Pujols is Jose Reyes. If Reyes exceeds expectations this year he could bat .330 with 110 runs, 90 rbi,25 hr, and 20-80 sb. Thats a 5 category player. The difference between him and Pujols is that Pujols will never give you Sb's, though he will probably hit 30 more HR, with 45 more RBI. I personally see speed as more valuable than power, and for that reason would consider picking Reyes above Pujols.
Mikey has admitted to considering picking Soriano 1st overall. Let me tell you why he is wrong...... I see Soriano this year as a 3 category player. He is around a 280 hitter, but playing in a smaller park i see that less of his balls will fall for hits, lowering his Ba. I could see Soriano hitting .270 this year. In addition to his BA, Soriano's RBI may go down if he does indeed bat leadoff. Thid leaves Soriano with Hr,SB, and Runs. I see Soriano scoring more runs this year in a better lineup, but i see his HR and SB slightly deteriorating now that he has finally signed the big contract. In the end you could potentially be left with; 35 HR, 35 Sb, .265-270 Avg,85 Rbi, and 100+ r. You should not pay for his 40/40 potential seeing as you can pick sleeper power/speed picks in the end of the draft. Instead pick Reyes or Pujols, and build around them.
"Pirates" also joked that Mauer could be the #1 pick, but seriously asked where i would rate him. I would rate Mauer at the Top of the Catcher position which is by far the most scarce in fantasy, and as a result would have no problem picking him in the third round of a 12 team mixed league. He is a real 320-340 hitter. He is a great contact hitter, and has a great eye. He hit 36 doubles last year, and with a rising fly ball percentage he should turn a few of those into HRs. I think you can expect 20 HR, a 330 avg 90 runs, 8 sb, and 90 rbi from Mauer this year. I have him above Mcann becuase he is a better contact/patient hitter. In addition to this Mcann's sudden power came from an elevated fly ball% and this could just as easily turn into more pop outs. Mauer just seems like a more proven/safe player to me this year. Mauer will not win any categories for you but he can help you in everything (especially average)...From a Catcher,ill take it!
That is all i have for today, i would like to remind you to keep sending me questions at ajopiela@yahoo.com or through the fbe message board, and dont forget to sign up for the Fantasy Man Leagues. As of Now im in a $50 draft scheduled for this saturday. I would love the company/competition of playing against some of the people who read my blog. Who knows maybe you know more about fantasy baseball than i do, well get in the league then, and we will find out. Thats why i am in it, is to see how my humble views measure up against guys like Mikey who are in the bussiness. By proving yourself, you gain respect, among the fantasy basbeall community, and thats how you get to be an expert by putting your name/skills out there... (Not that i know anything about that(:
Sunday, January 21, 2007
What About Pitching?
I recently recieved a post in the fantasybaseballexpress.com forums from "Pirates" who asked me when he thought it was appropriate to pick up pitching in a regular draft. "Pirates" also asks if it is easier to find pitching or hitting once the season starts.
Before I tell you my take on pitching this year, i would like to remind all you fantasy baseball addicts to sign up for the Fantasy Man Leagues on www.fantasybaseballexpress.com. They should be really fun, you will get your chance to play against mikey, as well as myself if you enter the 50 dollar league i am in lol....
I would take Johan Santana above any other player in these year's draft with the exception on Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes. I strongly feel as though he is by far the best pitcher this year. He could be the best in the league at his position in 4 of the 5 categories. There really is not much else to say, this guy is an absolute lock. Other than Santana I would not touch another pitcher until the third round. There i would target either Halladay or Carpenter. I would take Carpenter above Halladay because though they both post excellent era/whip Carpenter has a higher K ratio than Halladay, and Halladay has to face the Sox/Yanks. After that the next tier would be Zambrano/Oswalt. Oswalt should win more games and have a lower whip, but Zambrano should add some more wins this year, but he needs to lower his whip. He is also playing for a long term contract.
I would personally try to take at least one of these guys so you know you have one guy that you can absolutley rely on to give you Wins/K's while improving your ratios. After I hopefully lock up Johan Santana and my infield i will probably target a moderate risk young starting Pitcher such as Kazmir, Hammels, or even Ben Sheets. I would go after one of these guys in around the 6-7th round and would be happy to have one of them as my second starter. Before the 10th round is over i would try to pick up a good to elite closer, and possibly a eric gagne/ brad lidge who everyone is down on this year.
After I lock up 2-3 starters who will have excellent K's,Whip,Era as well as a decent closer i will turn to my late draft strategy which is very similar to Ron Shandler's L.I.M.A. plan. My goal here is to pick guys with excellent skills (Not necessarily roles) who will solidly put me in the top 1/3 of the league in Whip/Era/K's. I will put out a list of these guys later but for now im talking about guys like Scott Schields,Manny Delcarmen,Manuel Corpas, Joey Devine, and even Eric Gagne. The Difference between this and the L.I.M.A. plan is that i am willing to invest an early pick in pitching and will not hesistate to draft the studs. I will probably throw another starter in there, but definetly not a guy who will compromise my top tier era/whip. (Javier Vazquez/Brett Myers are great choices) In essence you are going to dominate in K,Era,WHIP, and saves if you play your cards right. The beauty of this approach though is that while everyone is reaching for picthing you are rounding out your offensive categories which you should be able to easily win.
I definetly think that pitching is easier to pick up once the season starts than hitting. This is because pitchers are more injury prone, and their jobs are not as secure as hitters. Think about it this way if a decent hitter goes through a huge slump, he will get moved down in the order so he can regain his confidence. However if a closer hits a slmup and blows a few saves he loses his Job. Last year we saw Otsuka/Putz/and Papelbon come out of the bullpen to be the best closers that nobody drafted. If you are totally on top of the team's bulppens and pay attention to who the future closers could be (Many are the guys i just mentioned) you really do not have to even draft closers in the actual draft, and can pick up guys from Free Agents. That said i would definetly get one guy just to be safe, and possibly another later, but do not pass up a hitter with potential to pick a run of the mill closer who will probably lose his job soon.
So that is my approach to pitching this year, i will probably expand on it in future posts.
If you have any questions please email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com. I need your participation to keep this going, this is what really makes the fantasybaseballexpress great. So jump on the forums, or send me an email...
And do not forget to register for the FANTASY MAN LEAGUES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Before I tell you my take on pitching this year, i would like to remind all you fantasy baseball addicts to sign up for the Fantasy Man Leagues on www.fantasybaseballexpress.com. They should be really fun, you will get your chance to play against mikey, as well as myself if you enter the 50 dollar league i am in lol....
I would take Johan Santana above any other player in these year's draft with the exception on Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes. I strongly feel as though he is by far the best pitcher this year. He could be the best in the league at his position in 4 of the 5 categories. There really is not much else to say, this guy is an absolute lock. Other than Santana I would not touch another pitcher until the third round. There i would target either Halladay or Carpenter. I would take Carpenter above Halladay because though they both post excellent era/whip Carpenter has a higher K ratio than Halladay, and Halladay has to face the Sox/Yanks. After that the next tier would be Zambrano/Oswalt. Oswalt should win more games and have a lower whip, but Zambrano should add some more wins this year, but he needs to lower his whip. He is also playing for a long term contract.
I would personally try to take at least one of these guys so you know you have one guy that you can absolutley rely on to give you Wins/K's while improving your ratios. After I hopefully lock up Johan Santana and my infield i will probably target a moderate risk young starting Pitcher such as Kazmir, Hammels, or even Ben Sheets. I would go after one of these guys in around the 6-7th round and would be happy to have one of them as my second starter. Before the 10th round is over i would try to pick up a good to elite closer, and possibly a eric gagne/ brad lidge who everyone is down on this year.
After I lock up 2-3 starters who will have excellent K's,Whip,Era as well as a decent closer i will turn to my late draft strategy which is very similar to Ron Shandler's L.I.M.A. plan. My goal here is to pick guys with excellent skills (Not necessarily roles) who will solidly put me in the top 1/3 of the league in Whip/Era/K's. I will put out a list of these guys later but for now im talking about guys like Scott Schields,Manny Delcarmen,Manuel Corpas, Joey Devine, and even Eric Gagne. The Difference between this and the L.I.M.A. plan is that i am willing to invest an early pick in pitching and will not hesistate to draft the studs. I will probably throw another starter in there, but definetly not a guy who will compromise my top tier era/whip. (Javier Vazquez/Brett Myers are great choices) In essence you are going to dominate in K,Era,WHIP, and saves if you play your cards right. The beauty of this approach though is that while everyone is reaching for picthing you are rounding out your offensive categories which you should be able to easily win.
I definetly think that pitching is easier to pick up once the season starts than hitting. This is because pitchers are more injury prone, and their jobs are not as secure as hitters. Think about it this way if a decent hitter goes through a huge slump, he will get moved down in the order so he can regain his confidence. However if a closer hits a slmup and blows a few saves he loses his Job. Last year we saw Otsuka/Putz/and Papelbon come out of the bullpen to be the best closers that nobody drafted. If you are totally on top of the team's bulppens and pay attention to who the future closers could be (Many are the guys i just mentioned) you really do not have to even draft closers in the actual draft, and can pick up guys from Free Agents. That said i would definetly get one guy just to be safe, and possibly another later, but do not pass up a hitter with potential to pick a run of the mill closer who will probably lose his job soon.
So that is my approach to pitching this year, i will probably expand on it in future posts.
If you have any questions please email me at ajopiela@yahoo.com. I need your participation to keep this going, this is what really makes the fantasybaseballexpress great. So jump on the forums, or send me an email...
And do not forget to register for the FANTASY MAN LEAGUES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Who to keep?
Here is a question that Mikey recieved and turned over to me to discuss in the Fantasy Baseball Express Rumble Pit.
The question asks which 5 players he should keep out of the 7 players he mentions. (Looks like a pretty good problem to have.......)
Here are the players
Utley
Wright
Jeter
Baldelli
Hamels
Jered Weaver
H. Ramirez
Chase Utley is the definition of a 5 category player. He is at the prime age of 28 and is playing for an emerging phillies team. His surface situation suggests that this could be his career year. Utley had somewhat of a flukey year last year; he solved his hitting woes vs lhers and scored a rediculous 131 runs. He went from 220 in '05 to 331 in '06 (Vs.LHers. There is no real explanation for this (Utley is a solid contacting hitter.) It is possible that his low Ba. was simply poor luck. His 131 runs can be attributed to his starteling amounts of Ab's in the second half, so expect that to come down a little bit. Im assuming becuase you are thinking of keeping Utley you do not have a better 2b option, but really there is not one anyway.
The next guy you need to keep is David Wright. Here is another 5 category player. His stats this year should actually be similar to Utley. He should have a few less runs with a lower Ba. His Fly ball percentage rose last year which could mean more power is coming. He is still only 24 so he is growing, but belive me it's coming.
Derek Jeter is worth keeping also. His .343 Batting average last year was a complete fluke, but he has consistantly been a 300+ hitter his whole career. His second half was far better than his first half last year. At the age of 32 Jeter should start to decline sometime soon, but he will definetly be worth keeping this year. If you keep Utley, Wright, and Jeter you are well on your way to a championship. You are getting Power and speed along with an absolutley elite batting average.
I would also keep Hanley Ramirez . His power spike in the second half of last year was crazy. Definetly do not count on him being a 15-20HR 80 Sb guy. He always makes contact and if you combine that with is blazing speed he should be a 300 hitter. You can't expect an improvemnet over last year but you should be happy with his 10Hr/60 Sbs.
I like Cole Hammels over Jered Weaver. Hammels Strikes more batters out, plays in the national league, and has a far better k/b ratio. Jered Weaver is an injury risk becuase of the innings he pitched last year.
I cant say that i would keep Baldeli until i see him produce over a full season. He is a small/fragile kid who is always hurt. Mikey compares him to Sizemore???? I can't say i agree with you on this one........
Hoped that helped a little bit...
The question asks which 5 players he should keep out of the 7 players he mentions. (Looks like a pretty good problem to have.......)
Here are the players
Utley
Wright
Jeter
Baldelli
Hamels
Jered Weaver
H. Ramirez
Chase Utley is the definition of a 5 category player. He is at the prime age of 28 and is playing for an emerging phillies team. His surface situation suggests that this could be his career year. Utley had somewhat of a flukey year last year; he solved his hitting woes vs lhers and scored a rediculous 131 runs. He went from 220 in '05 to 331 in '06 (Vs.LHers. There is no real explanation for this (Utley is a solid contacting hitter.) It is possible that his low Ba. was simply poor luck. His 131 runs can be attributed to his starteling amounts of Ab's in the second half, so expect that to come down a little bit. Im assuming becuase you are thinking of keeping Utley you do not have a better 2b option, but really there is not one anyway.
The next guy you need to keep is David Wright. Here is another 5 category player. His stats this year should actually be similar to Utley. He should have a few less runs with a lower Ba. His Fly ball percentage rose last year which could mean more power is coming. He is still only 24 so he is growing, but belive me it's coming.
Derek Jeter is worth keeping also. His .343 Batting average last year was a complete fluke, but he has consistantly been a 300+ hitter his whole career. His second half was far better than his first half last year. At the age of 32 Jeter should start to decline sometime soon, but he will definetly be worth keeping this year. If you keep Utley, Wright, and Jeter you are well on your way to a championship. You are getting Power and speed along with an absolutley elite batting average.
I would also keep Hanley Ramirez . His power spike in the second half of last year was crazy. Definetly do not count on him being a 15-20HR 80 Sb guy. He always makes contact and if you combine that with is blazing speed he should be a 300 hitter. You can't expect an improvemnet over last year but you should be happy with his 10Hr/60 Sbs.
I like Cole Hammels over Jered Weaver. Hammels Strikes more batters out, plays in the national league, and has a far better k/b ratio. Jered Weaver is an injury risk becuase of the innings he pitched last year.
I cant say that i would keep Baldeli until i see him produce over a full season. He is a small/fragile kid who is always hurt. Mikey compares him to Sizemore???? I can't say i agree with you on this one........
Hoped that helped a little bit...
Monday, January 8, 2007
The Big Unit Once Again?
Hey guys sorry it has been so long since my last post. But i have been busy and have had a lack of material to write about. I could put you asleep with my positional rankings, but ill save that for later. Instead i figured i would talk about something that is meaninful to a fantasy GM looking for a cheap investment pitcher who still may have something left in the tak............Im talking about Randy Johnson.
Last year was by far the worst of johnson's career where he posted a 5.00 era, a 1.24 Whip and 174 k's though he had 17 wins. Looks like he just needs to fix that ERA and he will be a valubale part to any fantasy team right? Since joining the yankees Johnson's K/9, k/bb, and hr/9 have significantly declined which should probably be expected seeing he was 40+ when he joined the club. Nobody can pitch forever and even the best pitchers skill's will decline at some point.\
What most people remember about the unit last year was his playoff meltdown. What a lot of people fail to recall is his slightly improved stats in the second half. Both his k/bb (2.6-3.2) and his bb/9 (3.00 - 2.3) as well as his Hr rate (1.3- 1.1) improved. Batters also hit more GB against him. His rise in ERA was just him getting unlucky in terms of runners scoring on base becuase almost all of his stats improved. One thing that has not changed about Randy Johnson is that he still dominates Lhers only allowing them to hit .194.
Randy Johnson is not what he once was but with a trip to the Nl in a fairly weak NL West combined with his slightly better second half numbers i think he is fully capable of 15 wins, sub 4 ERA, 1.1 whip and around 200 K's.
So if you guys email me some questions at ajopiela@yahoo.com i will email you back as soon as i can and will adress the good ones in upcoming posts. So once again sorry for the temporary delay i will try to get in a few posts this week.
Last year was by far the worst of johnson's career where he posted a 5.00 era, a 1.24 Whip and 174 k's though he had 17 wins. Looks like he just needs to fix that ERA and he will be a valubale part to any fantasy team right? Since joining the yankees Johnson's K/9, k/bb, and hr/9 have significantly declined which should probably be expected seeing he was 40+ when he joined the club. Nobody can pitch forever and even the best pitchers skill's will decline at some point.\
What most people remember about the unit last year was his playoff meltdown. What a lot of people fail to recall is his slightly improved stats in the second half. Both his k/bb (2.6-3.2) and his bb/9 (3.00 - 2.3) as well as his Hr rate (1.3- 1.1) improved. Batters also hit more GB against him. His rise in ERA was just him getting unlucky in terms of runners scoring on base becuase almost all of his stats improved. One thing that has not changed about Randy Johnson is that he still dominates Lhers only allowing them to hit .194.
Randy Johnson is not what he once was but with a trip to the Nl in a fairly weak NL West combined with his slightly better second half numbers i think he is fully capable of 15 wins, sub 4 ERA, 1.1 whip and around 200 K's.
So if you guys email me some questions at ajopiela@yahoo.com i will email you back as soon as i can and will adress the good ones in upcoming posts. So once again sorry for the temporary delay i will try to get in a few posts this week.
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